While there are reasons to turn tactically bullish on long dated US Treasuries ->
Let's not forget that Treasury supply (at the time of QT and waning demand stemming from China, Saudi and the likes) remains a headwind for the bond market
The end of the rate hikes is typically followed by plateaus before rate cuts begin
The end of the rate hikes may not be here yet, and the Fed has already said a many times for months that the plateau is going to be “higher for longer". How long will the plateau be this time? Source: Wolfstreet
It took 20 years for US interest payments to reach 4.5% of GDP in the 1970s and 80s
Today, achieving the same level will take less than 3 years. This starkly highlights the speed of the rise in Treasury yields and the magnitude of the debt problem. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Geberit rebounds after earnings
Geberit (GEBN SW) is rebounding strongly after earnings. Stock is up 8% today and more than 12% since October low. Keep an eye at next resistance zone 468.80-476 represented by February downtrend resistance. Source : Bloomberg
JP Morgan Asset class and style returns by year + October returns
Despite a pullback in October, Growth stocks continue to lead in 2023 by a big margin
Americans Panic Search "Give Car Back" As Subprime Auto Loan Delinquency Erupts
Recent data from Edmunds reveals that an unprecedented 17% of American car purchasers now have monthly car payments of $1,000, a significant increase from just 7% three years ago. This trend highlights the extent to which consumers, despite being financially stretched, are willing to take on massive auto debt in these uncertain economic times as macroeconomic headwinds pile up. New Google data, first revealed by X user CarDealershipGuy, shows Americans are searching "give car back" on the internet has soared to a record high. Source: Google search
The US Bond Market has now been in a drawdown for 39 months, by far the longest bond bear market in history
Source: Charlie Bilello
And we're back to Bidenomics trendline
Source: www.zerohedge.com
