With the US 10-year yield close to 5%, long duration bonds start to look attractive
There is one issue though: sentiment on long-dated bonds look too optimistic E.g 1/ not a single sell-side analyst does have a 10-year target yield above 5% for the next 6 months; 2/ Long-dated bonds funds are enjoying record inflows; 3/ Magazine cover pages look upbeat on bonds (source: J-C Parets). The consensus is not always wrong but so much optimism is usually not a good sign from a contrarian perspective.
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, despite the recent push toward new highs, gold remains severely under-allocated
In fact, 71% of US advisors have little to no exposure to the metal. Similar to how Central banks continue to aggressively accumulate the metal, conventional investment portfolios have yet to take steps to find true diversifiers. Sources: Tavi Costa, BobEUnlimited
On this week in 1929...
Source: Evan
Germany's inflation slowed to 3.8% YoY in Oct from 4.5% in Sep vs 4% expected and lowest since Aug 2021 as energy prices dropped 3.2% YoY and food inflation slowed to 6.1% YoY
German October Core CPI dropped to 3.8% from 4.6% in September. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Eli Lilly exceptionalism... $LLY vs. rest of Pharma and S&P 500 Healthcare stocks
Source: Goldman Sachs, TME
Moments ago the yen spiked to a session high against the US dollar
The highest since Oct 12, after Japan's Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan may tweak its YCC again and allow long-term yields to rise above 1% as soon as its Tuesdays meeting. Source: www.zerohedge.com
Goldman's Derivatives desk:
Demand for TLT calls and call spreads exploded this week. That's because "this is a cheap way to play for a snapback in bonds." As shown below, average TLT call volume this was over 350k contracts per day, an all-time highs...
Getting cheaper...
Global stocks have lost another $1.5tn in mkt cap this week on still-elevated US 10y yields and on not good enough earnings results. All stocks now worth $98.2tn, less than global GDP. This means that the Buffett Indicator is once again below the critical level of 100. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
