Over the last 3 years, the US Money Supply (M2) has increased by 14%, US inflation (CPI) has increased by 18%, and National Debt has grown by 24%
And over that time the US dollar Index ETF has gained 19% while the Gold ETF has lost 5%. As eveyone predicted... Source: Charlie Bilello
Looks like oil prices and bond yields have decoupled
Although the oil price has crashed sharply in the past 2 days, US 10y yields have fallen only slightly. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Long-Term Bond Prices Hitting Historic Lows in Global Aggregate Bonds Index: A Cautionary Tale of Convexity?
The average price of long-term bonds has recently reached historic lows, a significant development since the inception of the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bonds Index in the early 2000s. If the "higher for longer" narrative materializes and persists, it carries substantial implications for bond investors, especially those with long-term bond holdings. This pertains to the convexity of long-term bonds, a crucial yet often underestimated aspect of fixed-income investments. Choosing to retain long-term bonds with reduced prices and the associated lower coupon payments may lead to overlooking the attractiveness of short-term bonds, which currently offer more technically appealing yields. This decision could potentially entail a nuanced opportunity cost in the short term, especially if the 'higher for longer' scenario (which implies a soft landing) persists. Source : Bloomberg
The construction sector in Germany is really crashing. The German PMI Construction Index fell to 39.3 in Sep from 41.5 in Aug, and the lowest level since statistics began
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
A lot has changed over the last two years...
Source: Charlie Bilello
Gold reaching key support level
Gold (XAU) is reaching key support level 1808. Keep an eye. Source : Bloomberg
The impacts of rising interest rates on the costs of your mortgage over the life of the loan
In the US, A $400,000 house now costs over $1,000,000, with interest rates now at 7.7% from 3%. Source: WallStreet Sliver
You are here...October and November alone have the highest average monthly return relative to any other months of the year
Source: TME, Equity Clock
