Worldwide App Downloads
Despite Chatgpt's meteoric rise this year and with over 10M app downloads in August, it still lagged behind traditional giants like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook, each of which had over 50M downloads in the same month. Source: Beth Kindig, Business of Apps
Brent oil vs. Citigroup global inflation surprises index
Oil price usually lead inflation 👇 The recent uptick in oil price will be probably not enough to materially change inflation surprises, but should oil continue to go up it would start to have an impact. Source: Michel A.Arouet
The sp500 P/E ratio used to be tightly correlated to the US 2 year yield (inverted on the chart), i.e the lower the 2 year yield, the higher the P/E ratio and vice versa
Well, this is no longer the case as a giant crocodile jaw has been forming. Which of the 2 will bind firts? Source. Jeroen Blokland, True Insights
India Nifty 50 Index. Big picture, via 5% box size
Source: Mark Ungewitter
With a supply deficit of more than 2.5mn barrels a day through Q4, it is probable that Biden administration will not draw on the SPR so far ahead of the actual election date
Especially given the fact that SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) are already running low. It seems more plausible that Joe Biden will concentrate the SPR ammunition around Q2-Q4 next year. This creates another supply risk in the short-run for the oil market Source: Andreas Steno
Is oil once again becoming a political commodity: Russia and Saudi Arabia are cutting oil production at the worst time for the Biden administration (hint: next year is an election year in the US)
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The S&P 500 earnings yield minus risk-free cash rate (3-month treasury bill) has dropped to its lowest level (-90 basis points) in 23 years
Source: BofA
One key development of the week (beyond brent hitting $90) has been stronger than expected macroeconomic data - e.g the ISM services (see data table below from Markets & Mayhem)
Indeed what we are seeing in the last ISM Services PMI reading may not be the best news for the inflation situation: 1) New orders growing faster 2) Employment growing faster (from being nearly flat m/m) 3) Prices rising faster And the market reaction - stocks pulling back - means that good macro news is bad news for the market again. Indeed, while a growing economy supports rising corporate profits (which is a positive), a too strong economy would imply a more hawkish FED than it is currently anticipated by the market.
