BREAKING >>> SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan to step down at the end of September 2024
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📈 Japanese 2-Year Yield Surges to 14-Year High!
Japanese government bond yields are on the rise across the curve, triggered by Bank of Japan Board Member Hajime Takata's comments hinting at a potential end to the negative interest rate policy. Takata cited progress towards achieving the price target, indicating a possible rate hike—the country's first since 2007—expected in March or April. The front end of the Japanese yield curve is particularly influenced by the BOJ's monetary policy and continues to reprice higher rates. The market anticipates a 0.25% rate hike for the full 2024 year. It appears that Japan will gradually transition away from the negative interest rate monetary policy. 🇯🇵💼 #JapanEconomy #BOJ #MonetaryPolicy #YieldCurve #FinanceNews
Interest rate cut expectations continue to scale back: Markets now see a ~38% chance of 4 interest rate cuts in 2024
Just over a month ago, the base case showed a 50%+ chance of 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, odds of a March rate cut are down to 3% and odds of a May rate cut are down to 19%. For the first time in 2024, markets are close to the Fed's latest guidance of 3 cuts in 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The European Central Bank claims "Bitcoin has failed to become a global decentralised digital currency, instead falling victim to fraud and manipulation (...)"
"The recent approval of an ETF doesn’t change the fact that Bitcoin is costly, slow and inconvenient." Whatever Lagarde and the ecb say, the harsh reality is that the euro has collapsed againt bitcoin as all fiat currencies did. Source: Aries V., Senior Investment Data analyst at Fidelity
Goldman Sachs' analysts no longer expect a U.S. interest rate cut in May and see four 25 basis point cuts this year.
"Because there are only two rounds of inflation data and a little over two months until the May (Fed) meeting, the comments suggest to us that a rate cut as early as May, which we had previously expected, is unlikely," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. They now forecast an extra cut next year instead, with an unchanged terminal rate forecast of 3.25-3.5%." source : goldmansachs, reuters
US financial conditions are very easy compared to Fed Funds...
Too easy? Bear in mind what the FOMC said in the Minutes on Wednesday: "Several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall." Could this lead the fed to keep rates higher for longer? How long will the market be able to shrug off high rates and higher bond yields? Source: www.zerohedge
This chart shows the market pricing of a rate cut over the next three FOMC meetings.
March probability = 5% (was 80% at the start of the year) May probability = 29% (was 100% at the start of the year) June probability = 67% (was 100% at the start of the year) Source: Bianco Research
FOMC Minutes Show 'Most Officials Fear Risk Of Cutting Too Quickly'
The discussion came as policymakers not only decided to leave their key overnight borrowing rate unchanged but also altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding. The meeting summary indicated a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation, which in mid-2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years. However, officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy while saying that rate hikes are likely over. Members cited the “risks of moving too quickly” on cuts. Source: CNBC Activate to view larger image,
