China is getting ready to retaliate.
Putting upward pressure on US Treasuries (by dumping UST) could be their own "art of a deal"... Other options: China has basically three options: 1. Concede defeat to whatever terms Trump demands 2. Devalue the yuan by 20-40% (watch the offshore yuan this morning...) 3. Unleash biggest fiscal stimulus in its history (talking $2-3 trillion)
🔴 Breaking news:
China has announced it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on imports from the US in retaliation for duties of the same amount unveiled by President Donald Trump this week as part of his aggressive trade agenda ▶️ The U.S. exported around $143.5 billion worth of goods to China in 2024. The category worth the most was electric machinery and sound equipment at $15.3 billion (up 31 percent from 2023). Aerospace products also saw a substantial increase year-on-year, up 69 percent to $11.5 billion in 2024. Meanwhile, mineral fuels and oilseeds and grains saw declines of 26 percent and 15 percent, respectively, since 2023. The U.S. has a trade deficit with China, meaning it imports more from China than it exports. Source: Statista, Mario Nawfal
CHINA URGES US TO IMMEDIATELY CANCEL RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, VOWS COUNTER-MEASURES
Source: Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital
If the 34% tariff is on top of previous tariffs, China's average tariff rate is up 54 ppts this year, swamping what was done in President Trump's first term.
Question: How will China react? If China devalues the Yuan, that could trigger a major risk-off across the world... Source: Robin Brooks
China Saves Fiscal Power for Trade War as Spending Progress Lags – Bloomberg
China’s government appears in no rush to implement its budget, as Beijing preserves spending power to counter any damage inflicted by higher US tariffs. The combined expenditure in the general public budget and the government fund account, China’s two main fiscal books, rose to 5.65 trillion yuan ($779 billion) in the first two months, an increase of 2.9% from the same period a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data released by the Ministry of Finance on Monday.
What a change of perception in 3 years...
It seems that the West too often underestimates China China has achieved what they deemed impossible to do. We've seen this first hand in the EVs, electric batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and renewable energy. We might see it with AI as well Source: Cyrus Janssen @thecyrusjanssen @richardturrin
The United States now accounts for just 0.1% of global shipbuilding… 0.1%
Meanwhile, China alone is 53%+. (h/t: @BrianTHart) thru Geiger Capital
Oups... Is Porsche a dead man walking?
Source: Alex @alex_avoigt on X
