The Ratio of Emerging Markets to US Equities is now at an all-time low, breaking below the prior low from March 1999.
Source: Charlie Bilello
THIS IS ONE OF THE MOST EXPENSIVE MARKETS IN HISTORY
Most valuation indicators are at or near the highest levels since the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE. Some of them exceeded these levels, such as the Buffett ratio. Some indicators imply negative returns over the next few years. Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv, Hubert Ratings
"Bad" newspaper headlines do not always translate into bad equity returns...
Believe it or not but both Israel and China outperformed all the major U.S. Indexes in 2024. Source: J-C Parets
Market Performance After Christmas
Day after Christmas – NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Up 72.2% of time with average gains of 0.38% and 0.40% respectively. source : almanactrader
Nvidia $NVDA was the most-bought stock by retail traders on net in 2024
Source: CNBC, Evan on X
Top stock market of the year: Argentina’s index up 163% this year, outperforming the world
@JMilei Source: Sara Eisen @SaraEisen
The long S&P500 ($SPY) / short US treasuries 20y+ ($TLT) makes a lot of sense from a macro perspective but is very consensual and looks very extended
See ratio below "In the end, trees don't grow to the sky, and few things go to zero." Howard Marks Source: Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest
Can Wall Street Get It Right?
The annual tradition of predicting where the S&P 500 will land at year-end has once again raised eyebrows. As Wall Street strategists share their projections for 2025, historical missteps in forecasting cast doubt on their accuracy. 2022: A challenging year where the S&P 500 fell by 19.4%, far worse than predictions. 2023: Despite experts forecasting a modest gain of 6.2%, the index surprised with a remarkable rise of 24.2%. 2024: A consensus estimate of 3% growth was dwarfed by an actual gain of nearly 24% by mid-December. For 2025, the consensus now points to a 9.6% price gain, translating to an 11%+ total return with dividends. source :bloomberg, economicstime
