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Q4 has easily been the strongest quarter of the year with an average gain that is more than twice the average of Q1 and Q2
Source: Bespoke
On a growth-adjusted basis, the mega caps trade at the largest discount to the median S&P 500 stock in over six years
Source: TME, Goldman Sachs
Asset class and style returns by JP Morgan
As bonds and stocks fell simultaneously, commodities were the notable outperformer in Q3, returning 4.7% and echoing the market dynamics of 2022. Source: JP Morgan
We have seen one of the fastest drops in equity positioning since early 2022. Time to think about the upside pain trade?
Source: TME, DB
The S&P’s price has diverged from the trend for EPS estimates recently
The rise in bond yields probably explains this dichotomy
Is the golden era of 60/40s coming to an end?
And if equities / bonds correlation stay positive, which asset classes should be added to portfolios? hard assets and commodities? alternatives (private debt, private equities, etc.)? cash on an opportunistic basis? Source chart: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Last month returns for the sp500 constituents in one chart
Source: Trading View
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