Consensus expects Net margins for the Magnificent 7 to stay significantly higher than the rest of the S&P 500
Source: Goldman Sachs, TME
The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 ETFs are now less than 2% below their all-time high while the Russell 2000 ETF (small caps) is 24% below its high and the ARK Innovation ETF is 71% below its high
Source: Charlie Bilello
The rally in US stocks in recent weeks has taken attention away from what looks like a pretty concerning forward picture from earnings releases
Q4 earnings expectations have come down considerably in recent weeks, in contrast with equity market strength. Source: Bob Elliott, Factset
A look back on just how rapid Nvidia's $NVDA data center growth has been
· +79.7% CAGR since Q3 FY17's $240M revenue. · Reached record levels at $1.9B in Q3 FY21. · Grown 664% since then to $14.51B in Q3 FY24. · Projected to reach $46.6B in FY24, 56x more than FY17's $830M. Source: Beth Kindig
YTD performance
Mag 7: +105% S&P 500: +19% Source: TME
Microsoft is now clearly ahead of Alphabet again in the AI race on the stock market
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
US bank stocks never recovered from the regional banking crisis. Currently, US bank stocks are at record lows relative to the S&P 500
According to Moodys, major US banks are sitting on $650 billion in unrealized losses. Meanwhile, the looming commercial real estate (CRE) crisis has small banks in question. Small banks currently hold ~70% of all CRE loans in the US, $1.5 trillion of which need to be refinanced by 2025. Source: BofA, The Kobeissi Letter
Thanksgiving to Santa Claus Rally trade starts on Tuesday
S&P 500 up 79.45% of the time since 1950. Avg performance: +2.57%. Trade combines the best consecutive 3-month span, Santa Claus Rally and January Effect. Source: StockTradersAlmanac.com, Jeffrey A. Hirsch
