German builders warn of crisis as they scrap record number of projects
According to a FT article, cancelled building projects and financial distress among landlords and builders in Germany have hit their highest levels since reunification three decades ago, intensifying the construction crisis in the EU’s biggest economy. Hit by rising interest rates, soaring costs and weaker demand, 20.7 per cent of construction companies said they had been forced to scrap a project in August, up from 18.9 per cent in the previous month, according to a survey of 500 businesses by researchers at the Ifo Institute in Munich. Source: https://lnkd.in/etkDryVY
Disinflationary forces are fading right now in Germany
Wholesale prices rose 0.2% MoM in August, after 4 consecutive months of declines. Prices of mineral oil products rose markedly (+6.9%) compared w/July 2023. More headaches for the ECB? Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Concerns over Italy's ability to cut the budget deficit have increased Italy's 10y risk spread over German bunds
The risk spread may expand more if the ECB raises rates 25bps on Thursday. As highlighted by HolgerZ, Italian banks' €380bn of BTPs are central to the €1.6tn so-called sovereign "doom loop." Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Regulation: this is where Europe want to take lead globally...
the rest of the world (especially the #us) wants to lead on #innovation and #growth but Europe wants to become the champion of #regulation... Indeed, U.S. tech giants are facing stricter rules in Europe with more regulation (the Digital Markets Act or DMA) announced this week. The European Commission, the executive arm of the EU, named six “gatekeepers” on Wednesday — these are companies that have an annual turnover above 7.5 billion euros ($8 billion) or 45 million monthly active users inside the bloc. They are Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and ByteDance, who now have six months to comply with stricter market rules — such as not being able to prevent users from uninstalling any pre-installed software or apps, or treating their own services more favorably. Source: CNBC, politic.eu
Should German automotive executives start to panic?
While German unions request four days workweek, projections by IHS / UBS show that China automakers are likely to take substantial global market share in the years to come... Source: Michel A.Arouet
The most valuable listed company in Europe now comes from Denmark
Novo Nordisk has overtaken luxury goods group LVMH on the stock market. It is now worth >€400bn, LVMH 'only' €382bn. The Danish drugmaker on Monday introduced Wegovy in Britain after launching it in the US in June 2021. Soaring demand in the world’s largest drug market subsequently delayed marketing in Europe. The drug is already available in Norway, Denmark and Germany. The company said on Monday that the drug would be introduced to the UK “through a controlled and limited launch”. Novo Nordisk is the largest producer, by sales, in a market for diabetes and new weight-loss drugs that analysts forecast would reach $130bn to $140bn in annual sales worldwide. The company’s biggest competitor in the market, Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly, has applied for regulatory approval to use its diabetes drug Mounjaro to treat obesity. Source: FT
Anti-obesity drug is the new luxury...Novo is Europe's biggest company
Source: TME, Refinitiv
Disinflation pause?
Eurozone inflation remained stuck at 5.3% in Aug, higher than the 5.1% that economists expected. Core inflation, which excl volatile energy, food, alcohol & tobacco prices & closely watched by ECB as measure of underlying inflation, tumbled to 5.3% in Aug from 5.5% in July, matching expectations. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
