A remarkable chart. The sector composition probably does not explain everything
Source: Michel A.Arouet
German federal government is set to trim federal debt sales next year following the German top court's 'debt brake' ruling. Berlin plans to issue ~€440bn in debt
That compares with a record volume of ~€500bn in 2023 Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Times are tough for European industry, which is having to adapt to climate-friendly regulations, higher energy costs and increased competition from Chinese producers
German industry has seen production fall by -2.3% this year; worst of the four biggest eurozone economies. Source: Gavekal
An overview of European real estate price indices by Bloomberg / HolgerZ:
A shortage of housing has led to record real estate prices in ireland. The national property price index has now reached a value of 170.0, which is 3.9% above its bubble peak in April 2007. Property prices have increased by 113% in past 10yrs. Recent Dublin riots exposed the anger of Irish Youth facing a housing crisis resulting from the high housing & rent prices. Note the decline in German house prices (in purple) and steady markets in Italy / Portugal / Spain.
Most of this year's Dax rally is driven by higher EPS expectations, not P/E expansion. Dax has gained 18% year-to-date while Dax P/E has expanded only 6% from 11.5 to 12.2
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Political position of the largest party in each European country
(map by try.balkan/instagram) Source: OnlMaps
The German labor market is now sending out alarm signals despite the shortage of skilled workers
Germany’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 5.9% in November, the highest level in 2.5 years. Joblessness increased by 22k. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Eurozone inflation cooled more than expected, putting 2% target in sight:
Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY in November down from 2.9% in October. Core CPI, which excludes volatile components like fuel & food, moderated for a 4th month to 3.6% from 4.2% in October. Markets are now pricing 1st ECB rate cut to take place at the April meeting. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
