Eurozone inflation cooled more than expected, putting 2% target in sight:
Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY in November down from 2.9% in October. Core CPI, which excludes volatile components like fuel & food, moderated for a 4th month to 3.6% from 4.2% in October. Markets are now pricing 1st ECB rate cut to take place at the April meeting. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
ECB QT continues. ECB balance sheet back <€7tn, shrank by €5.3bn to €6,996bn, lowest since Jan2021
Total assets now equal to 50% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 28% & BoJ's 128%. And Lagarde has warned that the timeline for ending PEPP reinvestments and so QT could be accelerated. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
German inflation sinks more than expected as energy retreats & costs of fuels & travel fell sharply from prior mth
Headline CPI slows to 3.2% YoY in Nov from 3.8% in Oct & vs 3.5% exp. Food inflation slows to 5,5% from 6.1%, Core CPI dropped from 4.3% to 3.8%, so a long way to go to 2% goal. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
During 25 years before joining the Euro Italian Lira lost 83% against Deutsche Mark. Last 25 years they have been pegged. How much value would the Lira have lost against Deutsche Mark without the peg?
Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
German exports of motor vehicles and parts (blue) to Kyrgyzstan are up 5500% since Russia invaded Ukraine
Is Kyrgyzstan suddenly in a massive boom or are these vehicles and parts just transiting through Kyrgyzstan? Source: Robin Brooks
French and German economies are slumping
Source: Bloomberg
Far-right lawmaker Geert Wilders, who wants a referendum on leaving the EU, is on course to win the most votes in parliamentary elections in the Netherlands
However, according to an exit poll, Wilders’s Freedom Party is projected to win 35 seats, substantially less than the 76 required to secure an outright majority. Source: FT
German growth forecasts for 2024 have been cut following the budget chaos after the Constitutional Court declared govt's spending plans unconstitutional
The consensus now expects GDP growth for Germany of just 0.4% for the coming year. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
