The Trump 1.0 put was on equities $SPY
Will the Trump 2.0 put be on us treasuries $TLT ??? Source: Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital on X, Bloomberg
While equities took a beating Friday, bonds quietly broke out—closing above 5 months of trendzone resistance.
Right into PCE week… Interesting. $TLT Source: Trend Spider
GS: Short interest in $TLT is near century-highs
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, Goldman Sachs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Trump 2.0 focusing on 10Y yields, not Fed
Bessent repeated his view that expanding energy supply will help lower inflation. For working-class Americans, “the energy component for them is one of the surest indicators for long-term inflation expectations,” he said. Cheap capital is coming... Source: www.moneycontrol.com
A majority of stocks (59%) underperform Treasury bills over their lifetime and more than half end up having a negative cumulative return.
“Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” - Jack Bogle Source: Charlie Bilello, Peter Malouk
Fixed income: Credit is still the place to be
Spreads are as tight as they've been this entire bull market: Source: J-C Parets
The ECB shields high debt countries from bond market crises via the combined effect of past interventions and its TPI anti-fragmentation tool.
Underlying assumption is that high debt countries will do what it takes to bring down debt without crises. That assumption is wrong... - Robin Brooks on X
⚠️US money market fund assets jumped to a record of $8.2 TRILLION.
This comes as people expect the Fed to pause rate hikes for a few months. We have to remember, this is not money on the sidelines. Moreover, most of this cash has never been in and never will go to stocks. Last but not least, while the ABSOLUTE number is at record high, the RELATIVE number (cash as a percentage of total assets) is near record low. Source: Global Markets Investor, Goldman Sachs
