There is significant dry powder on the side line...
In 2023, we saw very limited US equity inflows vs. $1.4 trillion in money market inflows. If the gap starts to close for real now and gains momentum in 2024 it is needless to say a very good support for equities. Source: Goldman
Goldman Trader: Are $6 Trillion In Money-Market Funds About To Flood The Stock Market
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Big move down in Treasury yields yesterday after the FED projected 75 bps of rate cuts in 2024...
1-Year: 4.94%, down 55 bps from Oct high. 2-Year: 4.46%, down 73 bps from Oct high. 10-Year: 4.04%, down 94 bps from Oct high. Source: Charlie Biello
Who owns US Treasuries? For the first time since 1998, the private foreign sector now holds more US Treasuries than the official foreign sector
For 25+ years, the biggest foreign holders of US Treasuries were central banks around the world. However, this has now changed. reasons? QT but also foreign central banks buying less US Treasuries. Meanwhile, yield starving private investors keep accumulating US Treasuries. Source: Apollo, The Kobeissi Letter
HEAVY SUPPLY REMAINS AN ISSUE FOR US TREASURIES
The US Treasury is selling $108 billion of 3-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds on Monday and Tuesday, along with $213 billion of shorter-term bills. This year’s Treasury sales are poised to surpass the record set in 2020. Source: Lisa Abramowitz, WSJ
A Significant Decrease in High-Yield Bonds' Maturation Life: An Impending Threat?
Deutsche Bank's analysis of #highyield corporate bonds' maturity offers intriguing insights. In the last two years, the average maturity of high-yield bonds has significantly decreased, signaling companies' hesitancy to issue new debt amidst rising interest rates. This trend underscores the pressing challenges faced by high-yield borrowers on both sides of the Atlantic, with refinancing costs reaching levels seen only in severe crises over the past two decades. Not to mention that HY credit spreads are low, so what if they were to start widening sharply? #HighYieldBonds #FinancialInsights #MarketTrends #DeutscheBank #BankOfAmerica #Finance Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank.
The correlation between US stocks and bonds over the last 2 years is the highest we've seen since 1993-95
Source: Charlie Bilello
How much of the bonds outperforming stocks market action we've seen in the last couple weeks is a function of strong rebalancing flows given bond underperformance this year?
As highlighted by Bob Elliott, even part of this years 1.5tln pension fund stock/bond imbalance happening now could have quite an impact.
