The longest duration bond ETF is now down 60% from its peak in March 2020
How is that possible? The 30-Year Treasury yield has moved from an all-time low of 0.8% in March 2020 up to 4.6% today. Long duration + Rising interest rates from extremely low levels = Pain $ZROZ Source: Charlie Bilello
Sector fund flows
Long-only institutional & retail investors are all-in overweight tech and meaningfully underweight energy. Will elevated tech valuations, rising long-end yields, and rising oil prices trigger a squeeze in positioning? Source: The Daily Shot, EPFR, DB
The best performing segment of the bond market this year? Leveraged Loans, up close to 10%. $BKLN
Source: Charlie Bilello
An ugly canadian CPI, surging crude oil prices and cautious positioning ahead of tomorrow's FOMC decision have pushed #us treasuries yields to their highest since 2007...
Bonds are now at their cheapest to stocks since Oct 2007... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Is the 60/40 portfolio overvalued?
In August 2021, the combined valuation of overall equities and US Treasuries had reached its most expensive level in 130 years. To put the current valuation imbalance into perspective, its recent peak was a staggering 61% higher than its previous peak in the early 2000s. Although prices have corrected somewhat, particularly in the Treasury market, multiples are still elevated today. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Money markets are on track for a record $1.5 trillion inflow in 2023
Source: BofA
Credit Suisse bond investors plot lawsuit against Switzerland
A group of international bond investors is drawing up plans to sue Switzerland in the US courts for expropriation over the losses they suffered after the state-orchestrated rescue of Credit Suisse. The case is being brought together by law firm Quinn Emanuel, according to people familiar with the matter. Quinn Emanuel is already suing Switzerland’s financial regulator, Finma, over its decision to wipe out $17bn of Credit Suisse bonds when the bank was taken over by UBS six months ago. Lawyers at Quinn Emanuel are laying the groundwork to sue Switzerland in the US, where they believe there is a greater chance of convincing a judge to waive the country’s sovereign immunity rights. The suit could be filed by the end of the year, though it is not certain to proceed, according to people involved in the discussions.
OOPS! A bank liquidity indicator sounds the alarm!
Usage of The Fed's emergency bank funding facility rose once again (+$208M) to a new record high over $108BN as long-term government bond yields keep rising... Source: Bloomberg
