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France’s 2027 presidential race: a fragmented centre, an opening for Le Pen. Prediction markets tell a striking story
🥇 Marine Le Pen: 45–47%. The favourite, benefiting from a strong electoral base and divided opponents. 🥈 David Lisnard: 15%. Gaining attention as a pro-business alternative, though his betting odds far exceed his support in conventional polls. 🥉 Jean-Luc Mélenchon: 14%. A loyal base keeps him competitive, but high rejection rates complicate any runoff. 📉 Édouard Philippe: 8.6–10%. Macron’s legacy and competition within the centre weigh on his prospects. 🃏 Christine Lagarde: 6–7%. A potential wildcard, although she has previously ruled out running. The key message? Le Pen’s advantage reflects both her strength and the absence of a convincing challenger. These are betting-market probabilities—not voting intentions. Source. Bloomberg, C.Barraud on X
An eye-catching bloomberg chart
In germany, labor productivity per hour rose just 12.2% from Q2 2011 to Q2 2026, vs 29.5% in the US. One reason for the widening gap: German job creation in recent years has been concentrated in public services, where productivity gains are harder to achieve than in industries such as manufacturing. The mix of jobs matters, not just the number. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Intel Insider Trading Alert
Zerohedge built a screen of 20 High Yield data center bonds based on Barclays research. Each bond gets scored on four things: 1/ whether its site sits in a state that flipped (or, like Virginia, has moratorium bills moving) 2/ how far out its final delivery date is 3/ how strong the tenant is, and 4/ how much the market has already marked it down. It's an editorial ranking, not a credit rating, but there is the result Spoiler: seven bonds worth $17.3 billion score in the danger zone, and the market has already marked them down about 5 points on average since late September, nearly four times as much as the rest.
President Trump releases a statement on yesterday’s stock market crash.
Trump calls today one of the market’s “worst days in history.”
President Trump pushes back on Democrats, saying he's "100% in favor" of SI and only "foolish leadership" will say no to it.
This comes just a day after Democrats called for a ban on superintelligence.
Polymarket was right.
98.4% of resolved midterm races went to the Polymarket favorite the day before Election Day.
Signs that the situation is slowly starting to normalize in the Middle East?
Travellers between Dubai and London Heathrow have regained a daily British Airways option after an eight-month suspension, while several other international airlines continue to keep their Dubai routes on hold. Flight BA105 arrived at Dubai International Airport on Wednesday, November 4, after leaving Heathrow on Tuesday evening. Flightradar24 records confirm the arrival of the Boeing 787-10 Dreamliner, registration G-ZBLA, and its subsequent departure from Dubai as BA104 on Wednesday morning. British Airways says it will initially operate one daily flight in each direction during the winter season, with plans to increase the frequency to twice daily in summer 2027. That would expand its schedule from seven to 14 weekly departures from each city. Source: Gulf News, 360LiveNews
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