The US election doesn't change geopolitical truths facing the EU:
(i) China and Russia are allies - China is Putin's biggest enabler; (ii) the EU depends on the US for military protection, the US does NOT in any way depend on the EU. Strategic autonomy is a dangerous illusion... Source: Robin Brooks
Trump win over Harris in one map
Source: Michel A.Arouet
When Previous Presidential Election Results Were Called
Source: DeItaone (@*Walter Bloomberg)
Goldman has some potential reaction functions:
* Trump w/ Republican Sweep = 25% probability; S&P +3% * Trump w/ Divided Government = 30% probability; S&P +1.5% " Harris w/ Democratic Sweep = 5% probability; S&P -3% * Harris w/ Divided Government = 40% probability; S&P -1.5% Source: Carl Quintanilla on X, Goldman Sachs
Trump's odds are back on the rise.
🟥 Trump • 57.7% chance 🟦 Harris • 42.3% chance Tomorrow is election day. Source: Polymarket
When to expect swing state results (could take days)
Source: ian bremmer @ianbremmer
Pennsylvania is the key state to watch. The winner there might takes it all.
Volatility on this state in betting websites is huge and should not be overread. A few hours ago Trump is back on top (Polymarkets). That could flip again today.
🚨 US ELECTION UPDATE >>> The "Trump trade" took a hit yesterdy (see bitcoin now trading below $70k).
One of the reasons could be this: Yesterday saw a big jump in Kamala's Michigan odds where she is again back on top; Wisconsin is also on the cusp of going back blue. After Trump had a comfortable lead in all swing states over the past week (he still leads comfortably in AZ, NC, PA, NV, GA) there has been a reversal in MI and WI. Thuis makes the race tighter hence some profit taking. Source: zerohedge
