Donald Trump has picked Senator JD Vance as his running mate, in a move that could help the former president win votes across the crucial swing states of the US’s industrial Midwest.
Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, less than a decade ago, rose to prominence as a Trump critic. But over the last few years, Vance, 39, has emerged as a Trump loyalist, becoming one of his most vocal defenders in the Senate and a frequent surrogate on television as he called for the party to embrace Trump’s populist agenda. Vance could expand Trump’s appeal in the swing states. Indeed, he hails from the Rust Belt, which includes portions of the critical swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. He’s also a Marine veteran, and would be the second youngest vice president — tied with Richard Nixon — if Trump wins in November. Source: FT
Probably the best aerial pic of Saturday's drama via @nypost
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Surge In "Donate To Trump" Searches After Assassination Attempt
Source: Google Trends
Swing States Odds by https://lnkd.in/eEVhR_yt
Source: Interactive Polls
A landslide and sweep victory for Trump, this probably reduces uncertainty which is positive for stocks, BTC and the dollar.
Meanwhile, this could lead to more upward pressure on bond yields and a steepening of the yield curve. We also expect the "pro-republican" type of stocks to move higher. Pro-trump / republican seep victory sectors include Energy, Defense, Immigration-enforcement, For-profit education, Financials, some healthcare stocks, etc. Among the losers: Tech, Renewables, etc. From a geographical point of view, some US-friendly countries (India, Vietnam, etc.) might benefit from a Trump re-election. China and Mexico (and US stocks related to them) might suffer. Same for European autos exporters for instance. Source table: Bob Elliott
Bitcoin jumps >$60k as Trump shooting boosts Trump election odds.
Cryptos are the only assets trading 24/7. This could indicate a positive market reaction tomorrow. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Trump's strength in such a tough moment makes the contrast to Biden even larger...
This assassination attempt (the 1st of its kind in 43 years) took place 4 months before the Presidential election and days before Trump is to be officially named the Republican nominee at his party's convention. It is most likely a boost to his election - just watch the odds on PredictIt on the right. Worldwide, the image of a bloodied 78 years old man raising fist just a minute after the shooting is very powerful. But it also highlights how split America is.
Biden betting odds (blue line) fall after US President calls Ukraine’s Zelensky ‘President Putin’ in latest brutal gaffe, but corrects himself.
Trump odds (in red) now stand at 59% while Harris odds (in green) increased to 27% Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ, FT
