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~33% of the $35.7 trillion federal debt is held by government funds, including Social Security and the Fed. Over 25% is owned by foreign governments with the most held by Japan and subsequently China. ~15% is held by mutual investment funds. Source: Global Markets Investor

China's debt-to-GDP ratio hit a MASSIVE 366% in Q1 2024, a new record. Since 2008, the ratio has more than DOUBLED. Breakdown: Non-Financial Corporates: 171% Government: 86% Households: 64% Financial Corporates: 45% Even with this huge debt, China cannot achieve a 5% GDP growth target. How much additional leverage do they need to boost growth? And at what cost? Source: Global Markets Investor, IIF, Wells Fargo

China's economy grew at the slowest pace since early 2023 in the third quarter, and though consumption and factory output figures beat forecasts last month a tumbling property sector remains a major challenge for Beijing as it races to revitalise growth. See below key China GDP data: Q3 GDP 4.6% y/y [Est.+4.5%] Q1-Q3 GDP 4.8% y/y [Prev.+5.0%] Sept retail sales 3.2% y/y [Est.2.5%] Sept industrial growth 5.4% y/y [Est.4.5%] Jan-Sept fixed asset investment 3.4% y/y [Est.3.3%] Sept Unemployment 5.1% [Prev. 5.3%] Source: Reuters, MacroMicro

Depo rate to 3.25%, Main Refi to 3.4%. Guidance is unchanged: ECB to follow data-dependent, Meeting-by-Meeting approach. • Even after this third rate cut of the year, monetary policy remains restrictive in Europe, with the real short-term rate still at a level not seen over the past 15 years. Given the ongoing dynamics in economic activity and inflation, this implies that the ECB will have to continue to lower rates in the coming months, in order to bring its monetary policy to a neutral stance at minimum. Rate cuts at the coming meetings are therefore to be expected, in December and in the course of 2025. Given the worrying trend in economic activity data, an acceleration in the pace of rate cuts, with a possible 50bp cut at the December meeting, cannot be ruled out. If growth in the Eurozone stalls, a faster pace of rate cuts to remove the restrictiveness of the monetary policy, or even to move it into supportive territory, might prove to be warranted. Source chart: Bloomberg

71% of major central banks are now easing their monetary policy, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is also in line with the Financial Crisis and the 2001 recession. Source: BofA

Source: - Bloomberg

Only 8% of investors from the BofA survey* expect a hard landing for the global economy within next 12 months, second-lowest reading in 2 years. 76% expect a soft landing. *Survey of 195 participants with $503 billion asset Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor

Looking at the chart below (courtesy of BCA), it seems that a 5% of GDP stimulus package is the minimum needed just to prevent growth from weakening further...