A hawkish cut? As expected, ECB cuts rates by 25bps despite higher inflation projections for 2024 and 2025.
Main rate now at 4.25%, Deposit rate now at 3.75. ECB not pre-committing to any particular rate path. ECB to follow data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. The main surprise of the day is inflation forecasts being revised slightly upwards for 2024 (2.5% vs. 2.3%) and 2025 (2.2% vs. 2%), suggesting that the ECB will maintain a restrictive stance, keeping key rates above the neutral rate for the next 12 to 18 months. Bond yields have slightly increased across maturities without significant weakness in peripheral rates. The market is now pricing in fewer than two rate cuts for the remainder of the year, aligning with expectations of one rate cut per quarter. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise index is about the most negative since 2019.
DB's Jim Reid: Yesterday's ISM manufacturing report "was definitely one that dampened optimism about the state of the US economy right now. And it follows a run of weaker US data over recent days." Source: Bloomberg, Liza Abramowitz
US job openings have just seen a sharp move down today.
JOLTS 8.06 million openings vs 8.4 million expectations. This is rather a large miss. This kind of a steep declining has only been seen 3 times since 2000. The jobs market continues to soften. Source: Game of Trades
Productivity shortfall against the US is one thing, but Germany falling behind France is remarkable. What happened?
Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
Is US Consumer Discretionary vs Staples giving us a warning sign about the US consumer?
Source: Bloomberg
How "strong" is the labor market?
The US economy has seen an unemployment rate below 4% for 27 straight months, longest streak since the 1967. The longest streak of below 4% unemployment occurred in 1951 and lasted for 35 months. On Friday, the BLS will release labor market data for May, and estimates believe unemployment will be 3.9%. If unemployment comes in line or below expectations, it would mark the 2nd longest streak in history. Meanwhile, most Americans argue that the economy is getting worse. All eyes are on labor market data on Friday. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, DB
Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP estimate plunges to 1.8% from 2.7% on May 31, and from 4.1% two weeks ago
Source: zerohedge
Two clear indications yesterday that the US economy is (finally) slowing down:
1) ISM Manufacturing New Orders rolling back over to 45.4 vs survey of 49.4; 2) Atlanta Q2 GDPNow dropped to 1.8% from 2.7% last week. And down from 4.2% in mid May... Source: Bloomberg, AtlantaFed
