Interesting point of view by BofA:
"Fewer investors have focused on the inflationary effects of higher income. No other Fed hiking cycle in history occurred while government debt was so large ... interest payments flow to holders of Treasury securities and some portion will be spent." Source: BofA, Octavian Adrian Tanase
ECB leaves all rates unchanged as expected.
Main Refi at 4.25%, deposit rate at 3.75%. Guidance on interest rates also stays unchanged: Not pre-committing to particular path. ECB to follow data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
For US small caps, rates just as important as growth since 2022.
And as we know, March of 2022 is when the hiking cycle began... Source: GS, RBC
A large portion of Russell 2000 debt load is floating
It thus makes a lot of sense that small-caps were the most hot by monetary policy tightening / higher interest rates. Now the Street is anticipating rate cuts, small-caps underperformance might be coming to an end... Source: GS
Historically, bonds acted as efficient portfolio hedges only when inflation is <2%.
Below is the rolling 24-month correlation between US stocks and Treasury bonds. Source: Mike Zaccardi
Unproductive debt...
Every new dollar of US debt generates just $0.58 of GDP Source: Mike Zaccardi, BofA
Markets now have a BASE CASE of 6 FED interest rate cuts over the next year.
The base case shows rate cuts at every meeting remaining in 2024 starting in September. Discussions of a 50 basis point interest rate cut have even begun to emerge. This feels a lot like January 2024 when the market went from pricing-in 3 rate cuts in 2024 to 7 in a matter of weeks. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, CME
China Q2 GDP growth slowed more than expected (+4.7% yoy vs. +5.1% yoy expected), but the big surprise is just how weak retail sales were - growing only 2% in June.
-> China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country’s second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll. -> June retail sales also missed estimates, rising 2% compared with the 3.3% growth forecast. -> Industrial production, however, beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, higher than Reuters estimate of 5% growth. -> Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, meeting expectations. Investment in infrastructure and manufacturing slowed their pace of growth on a year-to-date basis in June versus May, while real estate investment declined at the same 10.1% rate. The National Bureau of Statistics did not hold a press conference for the data release. China’s high-level policy meeting, the Third Plenum, kicks off Monday and is set to wrap up Thursday. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC
