Loose policy = Bull market
Even if the BOJ hikes a few more times, real rates will remain deeply negative, a sign of accommodate policy. Chart tracks Japan real rates & market performance ➡️ 2009 -2013: period of high real rates, languishing stock market🔻 ➡️2013-2021: BOJ floors rates, pushes rates negative and fuels stock rally ✅ ➡️ 2021-2024: inflation picks up, real rates drop even further negative, Topix rallies 50% ✅✅ Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
Total US Federal debt has officially hit $35 trillion for the first time in history.
Since 2020, the US has now added ~$12 TRILLION in Federal debt. In other words, the US has added an average of ~$280 BILLION of Federal debt EVERY MONTH since January 2020. This means that the US now has ~$105,000 in Federal debt for every person living in the country. All while deficit spending as a percentage of GDP is currently at World War 2 levels. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
German inflation unexpectedly accelerated in July to 2.3% YoY from 2.2% in June as food price inflation keeps rising, core inflation, and services inflation remain sticky at 2.9% and 3.9%.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
JUST IN: U.S. National Debt surpasses $35 Trillion for the first time in history
Source: Barchart
In the US, if your income and net wealth has not increased by 25% since 2020 you are poorer now than four years ago...
Source: Michel A.Arouet
Easing US inflation in June👏
✅Headline PCE prices: 0.1% m/m ✅Core PCE prices: +0.2% m/m 🎯Moving toward Fed's 2% target: ⤵️Headline inflation -0.1pt to 2.5% yoy, IN-LINE with expectations. This is the lowest level since February '21 and down from 7.2% two years ago... ↔️Core inflation is flat at 2.6% yoy, at the lowest level since March '21. This is slightly above expectations (2.5%), which is not such a big surprise as PCE data from yesterday's GDP report revealed a similar picture. Source: Gregory Daco, BEA, EY-Parthenon
JUST IN 🚨: There is now a 100% chance of a 25 bps interest rate cut by September, according to CME FedWatch
Source: Barchart
🚨 Breaking! US GDP growth surpasses expectations, hitting 2.8% (est. 2.0%, prev. 1.4%).
GDP Annualized QoQ Contribution: Consumption 1.57 pp (prev. 0.98 pp) Government Spending 0.53 pp (prev. 0.31 pp) Investment 1.46 pp (prev. 0.77 pp) Exports 0.22 pp (prev. 0.17 pp) Imports -0.93 pp (prev. -0.82 pp) Source: MacroMicro
