Productivity shortfall against the US is one thing, but Germany falling behind France is remarkable. What happened?
Source: Bloomberg, Michel A.Arouet
Is US Consumer Discretionary vs Staples giving us a warning sign about the US consumer?
Source: Bloomberg
How "strong" is the labor market?
The US economy has seen an unemployment rate below 4% for 27 straight months, longest streak since the 1967. The longest streak of below 4% unemployment occurred in 1951 and lasted for 35 months. On Friday, the BLS will release labor market data for May, and estimates believe unemployment will be 3.9%. If unemployment comes in line or below expectations, it would mark the 2nd longest streak in history. Meanwhile, most Americans argue that the economy is getting worse. All eyes are on labor market data on Friday. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, DB
Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP estimate plunges to 1.8% from 2.7% on May 31, and from 4.1% two weeks ago
Source: zerohedge
Two clear indications yesterday that the US economy is (finally) slowing down:
1) ISM Manufacturing New Orders rolling back over to 45.4 vs survey of 49.4; 2) Atlanta Q2 GDPNow dropped to 1.8% from 2.7% last week. And down from 4.2% in mid May... Source: Bloomberg, AtlantaFed
Germany has the shortest average working hours of any advanced economy, with the annual figure falling 30% in the past 50 years and now a quarter below US levels, per FT.
Source: unusual_whales, FT
At 8.17 U.S. dollars, Switzerland has the most expensive Big Macs in the world, according to the January 2024 Big Mac index.
Concurrently the cost of a Big Mac was 5.69 dollars in the U.S., and 5.87 U.S. dollars in the Euro area. What is the Big Mac index? The Big Mac index, published by The Economist, is a novel way of measuring whether the market exchange rates for different countries’ currencies are overvalued or undervalued. It does this by measuring each currency against a common standard – the Big Mac hamburger sold by McDonald’s restaurants all over the world. Twice a year the Economist converts the average national price of a Big Mac into U.S. dollars using the exchange rate at that point in time. As a Big Mac is a completely standardized product across the world, the argument goes that it should have the same relative cost in every country. Differences in the cost of a Big Mac expressed as U.S. dollars therefore reflect differences in the purchasing power of each currency. Source: Tavi Costa, Crescat Capital, Statista, The Economist
Japan currently owns the highest share of public debt outstanding.
They will most likely move even higher... and everybody else will follow. There is no other option left. This chart also means there is still a lot of firepower for the Fed to keep treasuries interest rates under control if needed. Source: Michel A.Arouet
