Over the last few weeks, the newsflow for China assets has been horrendous, whether it’s the macro data or the policy side (disappointment at the scale and lack of detail)
While sentimnet on China is very bearish, Greater China stocks have outperformed over the past month. This could be a sign that the worst is behind and that bad news are already priced in. Source: J-C Gand, Bloomberg
Market cap of listed domestic companies as a % of GDP for selected countries
Switzerland is way ahead of peers in the ranking. US comes next Source: HolgerZ
Cloud Infrastructure Services Market
$65 billion in spending in Q2 2023. → +18% Y/Y and +3% Q/Q. Market share: 🟧 $AMZN AWS 32%. 🟦 $MSFT Azure 22%. 🟩 $GOOG GCP 11%. Big 3 = 65% of the market. Estimates by Synergy Research Group. Source: App Economy Insight
The Magnificent Seven have added nearly $4.2T in market cap this year, led by Apple’s $AAPL $781B increase and Nvidia’s $NVDA $745B rise
Microsoft $MSFT, Amazon $AMZN, and Meta $META all have added over $500B as well. Will it last? Source: Beth_Kindig
EM returns over past 5-10yrs have been lackluster, w/most EM equities returning low-to-mid single digits
Over longer-term, returns range from extraordinary (India: 1000%) to respectable (Indonesia: 469%) despite volatility & some prolonged periods of choppy trading, BofA has calculated. All EMs have outperformed China's 22% total return. Source: HolgerZ, BofA, Bloomberg
Should you do the opposite of what Wall Street strategists say? Data over the last 3.5 years suggests that strategists underperform the S&P 500
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
The Kobeissi Letter - Financial Events in 2023 So Far:
1. Mortgage rates pass 2008 highs at 7.2% 2. Credit card debt set to hit $1 trillion for first time ever 3. Regional bank crisis leads to 2nd and 3rd largest bank collapses in history 4. Fed raises interest rates to highest level since 2001 5. Debt ceiling crisis nearly leads to US default 6. US sees most bankruptcies since 2020 lockdown 7. Interest expense on US debt set to cross $1 trillion annually 8. Fitch downgrades US credit rating for first time since 2011 Yet, the S&P 500 is up an incredible 700 points this year. Is this the most resilient stock market in history? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Who is the most active congressional trader?
Well, the answer lies with Josh Gottheimer, a Member of the U.S. House of Representatives in New Jersey's 5th congressional district. 📈His trade volume is significantly higher than the next most active trader💰！ Source: Genuine Impact
