For nearly a decade, this group traded in a very narrow price-to-sales range, but it's different this time???
Source: Lawrence McDonald, Bloomberg
As per The Kobeisi Letter >>> The S&P 500 is now up 34% in under 8 MONTHS
Since the October 2023 low, the S&P 500 has added 1,370 points or $11.5 TRILLION in market cap. In other words, the S&P 500 has added ~$1.4 trillion in market cap PER MONTH for the last 8 months in a row. This means that the S&P 500's return since October 2023 is now 3 times the average annual return. Nvidia stock alone, $NVDA, has added $2.2 trillion in market cap over this time period. That's ~20% of the S&P 500's market cap gains coming from just one stock...
The market cap-weighted SP500 is outperforming equal weight index by over 10% this year, following 12% outperformance in 2023
Since 1971, we've never seen consecutive years with >10% outperformance. Source: Charlie Bilello
The US has captured one third of all global capital flows since 2020, compared to just 18% before the pandemic
Source: Barchart
These look like trailing P/Es but the visual emains impressive
Source: Jeff Weniger
S&P 500 continues to hit record highs on EXTREMELY low volume.
Today was the 4th lowest volume day of the year for $SPY. Three of this year's four lowest volume days have come in the last week. All 4 of the lowest volume days have come in the last 3 weeks. Source: Barchart
Foreign investors are piling into US markets:
Foreign holdings of US securities have hit ~$27 trillion in 2023, near the all-time highs seen in 2021. Since 2009, foreign investments in US markets have skyrocketed by 180%. This comes after the S&P 500 has gained 573% during this time materially outperforming other markets such as the EU, Canada, and Japan. Meanwhile, foreign investors’ share of the $78 trillion US equity market has risen to ~17%, an all time record. Source: Bloomberg, The Kobeissi Letter
Reckless Trading
Source: WSJ
