The Fed did almost no QT in the last 3 weeks
As highlighted by Tavi Costa, this was the smallest change in their balance sheet since the regional bank crisis in March 2023. Source: Bloomberg, Crescat Capital
NARROWNESS >>> The top 13 stocks have driven the whole of the S&P’s YTD upside with the top five contributing ~70%
Source: Bloomberg, TME
How are the 'Magnificent 7' Tech Stocks doing so far this year?
Nvidia Is Up +23.2% $NVDA. Meta Is Up +11.3% $META. Alphabet Is Up +9.1% $GOOGL. Microsoft Is Up +7.4% $MSFT. Amazon Is Up +4.7% $AMZN. 🔴 Apple Is Down -0.1% $AAPL 🔴 Tesla Is Down -26.2% $TSLA Source: Jesse Cohen, Bloomberg
Intel $INTC, is down 10% after-hours after providing weaker than expected guidance in their earnings release
The move lower has erased $20 billion in market cap in just two hours. Intel provided Q1 2024 EPS guidance of $0.13, which is well below expectations of $0.34. They are also guiding Q1 2024 revenue of $12.2B-$13.2B, below expectations of $14.2B. The question becomes if this weakness is an Intel issue or an industry-wide issue. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Tesla shares plunged 12% in worst trading day since 2020 after automaker warns of slowdown
Note that short interest as a % of equity float is near record low... Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
The Nasdaq 100:
- if you bought at the December 2022 low, you are up 64% - if you bought at the 2021 high. you are up 5%. - if you bought at March 2020 lows, you are up 150% Source: Bespoke, TME
Smart money is extremely bearish
Source: Game of Trades
Average 3-month ATM implied volatility (max/min range since 2008)
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