JPMorgan $JPM reported earnings
EPS of $4.84 beating expectations of $4.11 Revenue of $43.7B beating expectations of $41.7B Jamie Dimon added … “two significant risks remain. Ongoing and future spending requirements will likely be inflationary, and therefore, inflation may persist for some time. Additionally, geopolitical conditions remain the most dangerous and complicated since World War II” Source: App Economy Insights
⚠️The market is pricing in just ONE Fed rate cut for 2025. This is down from nearly 5 rate cuts expected in September.
Great Chart: @AugurInfinity, Global Markets Investor
A good chart from GS that shows how sectors & factors may react to change in 10Y bond yields.
Source: Ayesha Tariq, CFA, Goldman Sachs
Markets do not like interest rate uncertainty: Stocks and long-term bonds have declined for 5-straight weeks, the longest streak in at least 13 months.
During this period, the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has fallen 4.2% to the lowest since November 6th, a day after the Presidential election. At the same time, the popular bond tracking ETF, $TLT, has dropped 9.1% to the lowest since May 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bloomberg
It’s Shorts Weather
A basket of 50 heavily-shorted stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs with market caps of at least $1 billion apiece is down 3.2% on the day as of 1:30 p.m. ET, undoing what had been a very strong start to the year. source : gs, bloomberg
BREAKING: Prediction markets now see inflation rising as high as 4.1% in 2025.
Heading into 2025, expectations showed the inflation rate peaking at 3.6% in 2025. Prediction markets are saying inflation is back. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
U.S. Dollar vs. World Currencies in 2024
Source: Barchart, Visual Capitalist, Voronoi
Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital and one of the world's most respected value investors, is cautioning about froth in the market and believes we are due for either:
1) a large correction in the market OR 2) 10-year returns of between +2 and -2% Source: Barchart
