Chart by Tavi Costa -> Ammonia prices just had the steepest monthly increase on record.
Commodity cycles typically follow a rotational pattern, and these price spikes are not isolated incidents.Oil recently rallied, gasoline prices increased, natural gas started to rise, and now ammonia looks to be initiating its move. This is an inflationary era and an unmistakable one. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
Looks like oil prices and bond yields have decoupled
Although the oil price has crashed sharply in the past 2 days, US 10y yields have fallen only slightly. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
According to Reuters, the US currently has just 17 days of supply left in the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR)
This is roughly half the historical average of ~33 days dating back to 1990. Meanwhile, oil prices are still almost 30% above the target price the US is set to refill… Source: The Kobeissi Letter
The gap between oil and 10 year breakevens is huge...
Does it mean that the market sees higher oil prices as a "growth killer" and thus disinflationary at some stage? Source chart: TME, Refinitiv
Crude oil prices are booming and is now up 34.5% since late June BUT THIS IS NOT JUST A SUPPLY STORY - WATCH OUT DEMAND AS WELL!!!
The OPEC+ (Saudi/Russian) production cuts are the easy culprit to blame for higher prices. They do matter. But another equally important factor is booming demand. Bloomberg uses Department of Energy data for production, imports, and inventory changes to "input" the weekly demand for crude oil. Below is a five-week average to smooth the noise. Demand is through the roof! This suggests the economy is okay (aka "no landing") as there are few if any, signs of "demand destruction." The combo OPEC+ cutting back + demand booming = 34.5% crude oil rally in 10 weeks... Is there more to come? Source: Jim Bianco
Crude Oil $100 calls over the next year have seen their open interest rise to 120,000 as of Thursday. $90 and $100 calls are also the 2 most held strikes over the next 12 months
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
The supply story in oil is getting worse
Source: MenthorQ
