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Will oil prices react to the Israel-Gaza conflict?
A probability tree by Alexandre Kateb, CFA
Cost to move oil has surged!
Since Hamas attacked Israel, freight rates on 16 global routes are up +50%. Biggest gain has been for shipments across the Mediterranean Sea, which are up 2x. This is inflationary Source: Bloomberg, Genevieve Roch-Decter
Bloomberg analysis on war potential economic and market impacts
Source: Bloomberg
WIth the Vix <17, Brent oil<$90/bbl and S&P 500>4350, do you feel that risk is currently mispriced?
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
A potential black swan which could follow this week-end attack: both Saudi & Iran oil supply going down?
Source chart: Bloomberg
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