The 10 Biggest Swiss Watch Brands 🏆by revenues
Source: Morgan Stanley
The Swiss National Bank pauses its monetary tightening, defying expectations of another interest-rate hike to avoid adding constriction on a stalled economy
- The SNB left today its key rate unchanged at 1.75%, debunking market expectations of an additional 25bp hike - The slowdown in inflation, the magnitude of the monetary policy tightening already implemented (CHF short term rates were still negative a year ago) and rising risks surrounding the global outlook underpin this decision. - Indeed, as inflation is within the SNB target (1.6%, in the 0%-to-2% target), economic activity is slowing down (0% GDP growth in Q2 2023) and the Swiss franc remains firm, the case for further tightening had turned much less compelling in the past few weeks. Unlike the ECB, forced to hike last week due to an inflation rate still much above its target, the SNB had very good reasons to pause today and adopt a cautious stance. - The SNB doesn’t rule out additional hikes in the future if warranted, but the combination of slowing growth in Europe (likely to dampen underlying price pressures) and of the strength of the currency are highly likely, in our view, to keep Swiss inflation dynamics in check in the months ahead.
SNB unexpectedly leaves policy rate unchanged at 1.75%.
The Swiss national bank unexpectedly leaves its policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Market was estimating the probability of a 25bps hike at more than 70% yesterday.
USDCHF broke the 200 daily moving average of 0.9036 and now trading higher over 0.9060.
EURCHF also trading higher at 0.9650.
Credit Suisse bond investors plot lawsuit against Switzerland
A group of international bond investors is drawing up plans to sue Switzerland in the US courts for expropriation over the losses they suffered after the state-orchestrated rescue of Credit Suisse. The case is being brought together by law firm Quinn Emanuel, according to people familiar with the matter. Quinn Emanuel is already suing Switzerland’s financial regulator, Finma, over its decision to wipe out $17bn of Credit Suisse bonds when the bank was taken over by UBS six months ago. Lawyers at Quinn Emanuel are laying the groundwork to sue Switzerland in the US, where they believe there is a greater chance of convincing a judge to waive the country’s sovereign immunity rights. The suit could be filed by the end of the year, though it is not certain to proceed, according to people involved in the discussions.
SNB Policy rate at 2.00% by end-Q3 2023 - Survey
The following table shows economists’ forecasts for Switzerland’s benchmark central bank rate as surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sept. 1st to Sept. 7th. All figures are as of the end of the quarter.
Current SNB Policy Rate: 1.75%
Sourcce: Bloomberg
UBS Group AG posted a $29 billion second-quarter profit in first results since Credit Suisse takeover.
This is the biggest-ever quarterly profit for a bank in the second quarter as a result of its emergency takeover of Credit Suisse, and confirmed that it would fully integrate the local business of its former rival by next year. Key takeaways: - UBS said the result primarily reflected $28.93 billion in negative goodwill on the Credit Suisse acquisition (i.e this huge profit is due to a huge one-off gain that reflects how the acquisition costs were far below Credit Suisse's value). Underlying profit before tax, which excludes negative goodwill, integration-related expenses and acquisition costs, came in at $1.1 billion - The accounting gain for the quarter eclipses JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s $14.3 billion profit in the first quarter of 2021, the modern record for US and European lenders; - Analysts had projected a net profit of $12.8 billion for the three months to the end of June, according to a Reuters poll. Source: Bloomberg, CNBC Source illustration: Sonntagzeitung / Melk Thalmann
Watches of Switzerland shares plunge by a quarter after Rolex buys retailer Bucherer
The UK’s biggest seller of Rolex watches lost nearly a third of its value on Friday after the Swiss brand bought Bucherer AG, taking its first major step into retailing. Watches of Switzerland Group Plc shares fell as much as 30%, wiping out almost £500 million ($629 million) in market capitalization. Rolex unveiled the surprise move to buy Bucherer late Thursday, prompting analysts to question what the deal means for Watches of Switzerland’s future relationship with the brand. Peel Hunt’s Jonathan Pritchard noted that Rolex accounts for half of the company’s sales, and cut his rating on the stock to hold from buy. Rolex executives assured the UK’s biggest retailer of the brand that it will continue to be allocated watches by the same distribution system, Watches of Switzerland Chief Executive Officer Brian Duffy said in an interview. Source: Bloomberg
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