Syz the moment

The BIST 100 has fallen roughly 10–11%, including a 6% drop that triggered a market-wide circuit breaker. The key concern is no longer valuation—it is whether investors can get their money out. Pusula Portföy disclosed delays in meeting some fund redemptions. When withdrawals rise, managers need cash and often sell their most liquid holdings—not necessarily their weakest ones. That is how otherwise healthy stocks get dragged into the selloff. New fund regulations, 37% domestic interest rates and expensive oil are adding pressure. Meanwhile, a hawkish Fed could strengthen the dollar and reduce demand for Turkish assets. This is not yet a full currency crisis: the lira has remained far more stable than equities. But the risk is clear. Once a market starts pricing exit risk, fundamentals become secondary. The turning point will come when redemptions are met and forced selling finally ends. Source: EndGame Macro @onechancefreedm

Turkey's BIST 100 index crashed 6% yesterday, putting it on track for its worst 2-day drop since March 2025. A major Turkish asset manager failed to meet investor redemption requests, sparking fears of a broader liquidity crisis across the country's entire fund industry. Nearly every stock in the index fell yesterday. The index has now crashed more than 11% in just the last 6 days.

Turkish Lira has plunged more than 96% against the U.S. Dollar since 2010. Source: Barchart

Source: Augur Infinity

Source: Bloomberg, Robin Brooks

Imamoglu, the 53-year-old Istanbul mayor, was seen as the next opposition party candidate for the Turkish presidency and was expected to be nominated on Sunday. Charges for the arrest, which Imamoglu and his party reject, include terrorism and organized crime. Source: CNBC, Bloomberg

But main rate still way below inflation of 67.1%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ

Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan's sudden resignation from the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has stirred questions about its impact on monetary policy and financial markets. Erkan, who made history as the first woman to lead the CBT, took office less than eight months ago with a mandate to adopt a more orthodox monetary policy. She swiftly raised the benchmark interest rate to 45% to combat soaring inflation. Following Erkan's exit, her deputy, Fatih Karahan, assumed leadership. With experience from the New York Federal Reserve and Amazon, Karahan is expected to maintain a strict monetary stance. He affirmed a commitment to monetary tightening until inflation aligns with the CBT's goals. This transition arrives amid high consumer price inflation, expected to remain around 65% for January. Karahan's appointment underscores the nation's policy continuity and commitment to economic stability through orthodox monetary measures. As financial markets react, we'll closely watch the CBT's policy decisions under Governor Karahan's leadership and their impact on the Turkish economy. 🇹🇷📈 Source: Bloomberg #CBT #TurkeyEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #MarketImpact