US Retail Sales increased 2.6% over the last year and this number is taken positively by markets
Retail sales came in better than expecting indicating that hashtag#consumers are still strong. Retail Sales month-over-month is the best number since January 2023. There are few caveats though: 1) After adjusting for higher prices they were down 0.4%. 2) Both of these numbers are well below the historical averages of +4.6% nominal and +2.0% real. 3) Previous numbers were revised downward Source: Charlie Bilello
Gains from last Monday's (8/5) panic lows...
Source: Charlie Bilello
BREAKING: Prediction markets are now showing a 53% chance of Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election, according to Polymarket.
These markets are different than polls in that the probabilities are based on real money wagers. In 2016, polls put odds of Hillary Clinton beating Trump at 70%, with some as high as 98%. Trump's victory in 2016 ended up resulting in one of the largest polling and election forecaster failures in history. Will prediction markets prove to be more or less accurate? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING >>> Hackers have reportedly stolen Social Security numbers of EVERY American from National Public Data, according to the Los Angeles Times
2.9 billion people's data was reportedly stolen Source: Stocktwits
Ulta Beauty $ULTA exploding higher in after-hours after Warren Buffett discloses a new position of 690,000 shares
Source: Barchart
Core goods CPI plunged further into deflation territory in July ... -1.9% year/year
Source: Kevin Gordon, Bloomberg
July US CPI fell to 2.9%, below expectations of 3.0%
ore CPI inflation fell to 3.2%, in-line with expectations of 3.2%. This marks the first month with CPI inflation below 3.0% since March 2021. However, Supercore inflation snapped back to just above the pre-COVID average after two months of outright declines. Shelter inflation also surged back to a 0.38% m/m gain after an unusual decline to 0.17% in June. This is not the perfect report the hashtag#Fed would be looking for. However, there is nothing overly concerning from what we've seen thus far. The first rate cut since 2020 is probably coming next month.
US July CPI inflation expectations:
1. Kalshi: 2.9% 2. TD Securities: 2.9% 3. UBS: 2.9% 4. Goldman Sachs: 2.9% 5. Citigroup: 3.0% 6. Morgan Stanley: 3.0% 7. Bank of America: 3.0% 8. Barclays: 3.0% The median July CPI expectation shows headline inflation at 3.0% and Core CPI inflation at 3.2%. If today CPI inflation comes in at 2.9% or lower, it will mark the first month with inflation under 3.0% since March 2021. Today's CPI report could solidify a hashtag#fed September rate cut. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
