Retail investors are all in
Retail investors' inflows into U.S. stocks jumped over the last 2 weeks to their highest levels in at least 12 months. Aggregate net retail 5-day moving average purchases have more than DOUBLED in a month and hit~$1.7 billion last week. This comes after the S&P 500 fell ~7%, providing what proved to be a buying opportunity. Following the inflows, the S&P 500 surged over 8% from its low and is now 1.5% away from a new all time high. The risk appetite for stocks is still strong. Source: FT, The Kobeissi Letter
For the fourth consecutive month, the US LEI (leading indicators) has not signaled a recession ahead
Source: Mike Z.
FT article: "The rate at which US start-ups are going bust is more than seven times higher than in 2019, threatening millions of jobs and risking spillover to the wider economy"
Source: FT
US government spending is expected to hit 24.2% of GDP in 2024, significantly above the previous 39-year average of 21.1%, according to the CBO.
At the same time, revenues are projected to reach 17.6% of GDP, just 0.4 percentage points above the 1984-2023 average. As a result, the US deficit is estimated to hit 6.6% of GDP, almost DOUBLE the 39-year average. In nominal terms, the deficit is set to hit $1.9 trillion in 2024, the highest level since 2021 when the deficit was $2.8 trillion in response to the pandemic. US government spending relative to GDP is expected to rise rapidly while revenue stagnates. Multi-trillion Dollar deficits are the new normal. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Passenger train lines in the USA vs Europe
Source: Massimo @Rainmaker1973
What’s the best explanation for why inflation has fallen so much more in the United States than any other G7 country?
Source: Erik Brynjolfsson @erikbryn on X
'While cyclicals have trailed defensives recently, they are still priced for an economic expansion.'
https://lnkd.in/eH8idMiZ ht @dailychartbook thru Jesse Felder on X, Bloomberg
Eric Schmidt, ex-CEO at Google $GOOGL, said his former company is losing the AI race and remote work is to blame - WSJ
“Google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning” Source: Evan
