BREAKING: For the first time ever, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in Polymarket's 2024 election odds.
At one point, prediction markets saw a 10+ percentage point lead by Donald Trump. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Donald Trump said the Fed has "gotten a lot wrong," and "US Presidents should have a say in Fed actions."
“I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman" What do you think? Source: Stocktwits
Use of Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Falls to Lowest Since 2021
Analysts said investors may have pulled their money from the reverse repo market and placed cash in the overnight repo market, where banks and financial firms such as hedge funds borrow short-term cash using Treasuries or other debt securities as collateral. In addition, a large rise in the supply of Treasury bills on Tuesday and Thursday, is likely to further drain cash from the RRP facility, analysts said. Source: Win Smart, Bloomberg, Yahoo finance
Berkshire Hathaway is now holding 25% of their Assets in Cash, the highest % since 2004.
Historical average cash position: 14%. $BRK.B Source: Charlie Bilello
US crudeoil production hit a record high.
Source: The Daily Shot
The main reason the economy has been able to avoid a recession over the last 2-years
was due to the massive spending from the inflation reduction and CHIPs Acts. However, the rate of that spending is declining which could potentially weigh on economic growth going forward. Source: BofA, The Daily Shot, Lance Roberts
Interesting to see how the psychology of the market has been changing lately.
A few weeks ago, strong job reports had a negative effect on stocks. Now it is the other way round. Initial jobless claims reversed their uptrend and stocks seem quite happy with this. Why? Because there is actually a "growth" fear (instead of an "inflation" fear) which means that any decent economic report will be welcome by the market (and any bad one could push stocks lower).
Stock market corrections are a common occurrence: Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a decline of 5% or more in 94% of years.
A correction of 10% or more happened in 61 out of the last 96 years. A larger drawdown of 15%+ was seen in 40% of the years in the 1928-2023 timeframe. Finally, a bear market with a 20% drop or more took place in 25 out of the last 96 years. Stock market pullbacks are normal. Source: Ritholtz Financial, The Kobeissi Letter
