BREAKING: Prediction markets are now showing a 53% chance of Kamala Harris winning the 2024 election, according to Polymarket.
These markets are different than polls in that the probabilities are based on real money wagers. In 2016, polls put odds of Hillary Clinton beating Trump at 70%, with some as high as 98%. Trump's victory in 2016 ended up resulting in one of the largest polling and election forecaster failures in history. Will prediction markets prove to be more or less accurate? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING >>> Hackers have reportedly stolen Social Security numbers of EVERY American from National Public Data, according to the Los Angeles Times
2.9 billion people's data was reportedly stolen Source: Stocktwits
Ulta Beauty $ULTA exploding higher in after-hours after Warren Buffett discloses a new position of 690,000 shares
Source: Barchart
Core goods CPI plunged further into deflation territory in July ... -1.9% year/year
Source: Kevin Gordon, Bloomberg
July US CPI fell to 2.9%, below expectations of 3.0%
ore CPI inflation fell to 3.2%, in-line with expectations of 3.2%. This marks the first month with CPI inflation below 3.0% since March 2021. However, Supercore inflation snapped back to just above the pre-COVID average after two months of outright declines. Shelter inflation also surged back to a 0.38% m/m gain after an unusual decline to 0.17% in June. This is not the perfect report the hashtag#Fed would be looking for. However, there is nothing overly concerning from what we've seen thus far. The first rate cut since 2020 is probably coming next month.
US July CPI inflation expectations:
1. Kalshi: 2.9% 2. TD Securities: 2.9% 3. UBS: 2.9% 4. Goldman Sachs: 2.9% 5. Citigroup: 3.0% 6. Morgan Stanley: 3.0% 7. Bank of America: 3.0% 8. Barclays: 3.0% The median July CPI expectation shows headline inflation at 3.0% and Core CPI inflation at 3.2%. If today CPI inflation comes in at 2.9% or lower, it will mark the first month with inflation under 3.0% since March 2021. Today's CPI report could solidify a hashtag#fed September rate cut. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
$SBUX Starbucks replaces CEO Laxman Narasimhan with $CMG Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol
$CMG Chipotle's stock is up 773% since Brian Niccol became CEO in March 2018 Just 9 S&P 500 stocks have performed better than $CMG since March 2018 $SBUX must have paid him the star bucks... Source: Stocktwits
The European Commission has denied that its internal market commissioner had approval from Ursula von der Leyen to send the letter
one EU official saying, 'Thierry has his own mind and way of working and thinking'. Source: FT
