BREAKING 🚨 Still a very uncertain race...
Donald Trump is officially leading Kamala Harris in odds to win the 2024 presidential election, according to Polymarket. Kamala Harris has erased a 10 percentage point lead seen just over a week ago. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING 🚨 US employment data...
Federal Reserves faces up to 1 million US jobs "vanishing" in potentially the largest downward jobs revision in 15 years, according to Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth in the year through March was at least 600,000 weaker than currently estimated — about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasters see a decline of about 360,000, Goldman Sachs indicates it could be as large as a million. There are a number of caveats in the preliminary figure, but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought. The final numbers are due early next year. Such figures also have the potential of shaping the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at week’s end in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are trying to gain insight as to when and how much the central bank will start lowering interest rates as inflation and the job market cool. Source: Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg
JUST IN: U.S. elections - The Democratic Party releases its platform, with no mention of Bitcoin or crypto
The Democratic Party's official 2024 platform was released yesterday (Monday) on day one of the Democratic National Convention, without any mention of Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. This decision aligns with the past four years of the Biden-Harris administration's hostility towards the industry. Despite the growing significance of Bitcoin and digital assets, neither Kamala Harris or Tim Walz, who are running for president and vice president in the upcoming election this November, has prioritized the inclusion of Bitcoin and crypto in the party's agenda. Source: Bitcoin magazine, www.zerohedge.com
Retail investors are all in
Retail investors' inflows into U.S. stocks jumped over the last 2 weeks to their highest levels in at least 12 months. Aggregate net retail 5-day moving average purchases have more than DOUBLED in a month and hit~$1.7 billion last week. This comes after the S&P 500 fell ~7%, providing what proved to be a buying opportunity. Following the inflows, the S&P 500 surged over 8% from its low and is now 1.5% away from a new all time high. The risk appetite for stocks is still strong. Source: FT, The Kobeissi Letter
For the fourth consecutive month, the US LEI (leading indicators) has not signaled a recession ahead
Source: Mike Z.
FT article: "The rate at which US start-ups are going bust is more than seven times higher than in 2019, threatening millions of jobs and risking spillover to the wider economy"
Source: FT
US government spending is expected to hit 24.2% of GDP in 2024, significantly above the previous 39-year average of 21.1%, according to the CBO.
At the same time, revenues are projected to reach 17.6% of GDP, just 0.4 percentage points above the 1984-2023 average. As a result, the US deficit is estimated to hit 6.6% of GDP, almost DOUBLE the 39-year average. In nominal terms, the deficit is set to hit $1.9 trillion in 2024, the highest level since 2021 when the deficit was $2.8 trillion in response to the pandemic. US government spending relative to GDP is expected to rise rapidly while revenue stagnates. Multi-trillion Dollar deficits are the new normal. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Passenger train lines in the USA vs Europe
Source: Massimo @Rainmaker1973
