Rising real rates are going to inflict real pain on a variety of asset classes, particularly longer duration risk
BofA, Markets & Mayhem 🤖
BofA forecasts that ~48M US patients will have seen anti obesity medications by 2030
Source: TME, BofA
In the last 8 decades, savings as a percentage of national income has ONLY contracted three times:
2008 - Great Recession. 2020 - Covid Pandemic Crash. 2023 - The Everything Bubble. Source: Whalewire
Here's a visual comparing the 5 largest companies in the U.S. to the 5 largest in Europe by market cap
It's absolutely remarkable that $AAPL alone is almost twice the size of all five European giants combined. Source: Quartr
U.S. Treasuries have reached one of the most oversold levels in the last 36 years
This has typically foreshadowed events such as the October 1987 crash, the Dotcom Bubble, and the Nasdaq surge (Oct 2022) Source: Barchart, BofA
Looking at the September US payroll numbers through another lens
Unadjusted total payrolls rose by 585K and yet private payrolls dropped by 399K. All of the unadjusted jobs in September came from the government, which added a whopping 984K jobs (mostly teachers). What if all the mess in Washington (shutdowns, political gridlock in Congress, etc.) and rising cost of debt put a cap on the fiscal support? Where are the jobs going to come from? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The yield premium on the S&P 500 has completely disappeared for the first time in over 20 years
The US 10-year treasury now offers (theoretically) the same amount of sweet hot sauce goodness that's on offer in the stock market. Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
U.S. Mortgage Rates surpassed 8% this week for the first time in more than 23 years
Source: barchart
