‼️ US budget deficit hit a GIGANTIC $367 BILLION in November 2024.
This puts the total deficit for the first 2 months of the Fiscal Year 2025 to a TREMENDOUS $624 BILLION, the highest EVER. This has even surpassed the 2020 CRISIS LEVELS. Source: Global Markets Investor, The Daily Shot
US net interest expense is 15% of tax revenue, it will rise to 25% in 2035 according to the CBO...
It will get there much faster if the Fed starts hiking rates again Source: zerohedge
What can wonder what happened in the US last month?
Source: NFIB
The 20 largest US stocks represent $24 trillion in market cap
Close to the total of the 480 other stocks in the S&P 500 ($29.8T) as well as the entire U.S. economy, measured at $27T in GDP in 2023.2
US Economic Surprises are starting to roll out.
See below yesterday macro numbers - majority of them missed estimates (hard & soft data) *ADP Payrolls: Miss 🔴 *S&P Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services PMI: Miss 🔴 *ISM Services Employment: Miss 🔴 *Factory Orders: Miss 🔴 Source: Jessie Cohen
Overnight gains in US equities have massively outpaced intraday gains.
Source: Chris Murphy, Susquehanna International Group, The Daily Shot
⚠️US QUITS RATE IS FALLING QUICKLY⚠️
The quits rate, the % of workers voluntarily exiting their jobs fell to 1.9% in September, the lowest since June 2020. Americans are increasingly depending on their current jobs as the hiring pace has declined. Data for October is due today. Source: Global Markets Investor
The US stock market is MASSIVE: US stock market capitalization accounts now for 74% of the MSCI World Index, a new all-time high.
Since the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis, this percentage has increased by ~25 points. By comparison, Europe and Japan’s share have dropped by ~15 and ~5 percentage points, respectively. As a result, the US' share of global market cap is now 4 TIMES larger than Europe and Japan COMBINED. This comes as the S&P 500 has rallied 450% over the last 15 years compared to a 70% and 310% gain of the Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei 225. The US stock market has never been larger. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, SG Cross Asset Research, Factset
