Syz the moment

Q1 FY2027 delivered a major datapoint for the AI bull case: Oracle’s trailing 12-month operating cash flow reached $46.9 billion. • +118% year-on-year • +47% quarter-on-quarter • Nearly $15 billion added in one quarter Yes, Oracle’s capital expenditure remains enormous. But that is precisely the strategy: build the computing and data-center capacity needed to serve one of the industry’s largest contracted AI backlogs. The key question was whether this massive infrastructure investment would eventually translate into revenue and cash generation. As capacity comes online and remaining performance obligations convert into sales, the answer is becoming clearer. AI infrastructure is moving from capital expenditure… …to cash flow. $ORCL Source: Steven Fiorillo

“A large bank” will be sanctioned by the U.S. next week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday, without naming the financial institution nor the country. The announcement comes after Trump’s administration sanctioned the Dubai branches of the second largest bank in Egypt (Banque Misr) which is believed to have given Iranians $1.8 billion of funds. Turkey’s largest bank “that had been giving to the Iranians” will also be closed, according to Bessent. Source: CNBC

• Headline CPI YoY: 3.4% vs. 3.4% expected and prior • Core CPI YoY: 2.4% vs. 2.4% expected and 2.5% prior Core inflation cooled from last month, but matched forecasts. Traders now see about 90% chance of a Fed RATE HIKE on September. CPI YoY: 3.4% vs 3.4% est CPI Core YoY: 2.4% vs 2.4% est CPI MoM: 0.4% vs 0.4% est CPI Core MoM: 0.3% vs 0.2% est Source: Coinbureau

Q1 Adj. EPS: $1.92 vs $1.74 est Q1 Sales: $19.300B vs $19.144B est Raised FY2027 Adj EPS Guidance Raised FY2027 Sales Guidance Stock was up+7.85% during after-hours trading (The stock still needs to rally 112% to see its all-time high again...) Here are the details: ORACLE $ORCL Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $19.3B (Est. $19.14B) ; +30% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.92 (Est. $1.74) ; +30% YoY 🔹 RPO: $664B; +$209B YoY FY Guide: 🔹 Revenue: At least $90B (Est. $89.79B) 🔹 Adj. EPS: $8.10 (Est. $8.07) Q2 Guide: 🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.85-$1.93 USD (Est. $1.89) 🔹 Revenue Growth: 30% to 34% USD/CC 🔹 Cloud Revenue Growth: 65% to 71% USD; 64% to 70% CC Segment Net Revenue: 🔹 Cloud: $11.6B; +62% YoY 🔹 Cloud Infrastructure: $7.4B; +121% YoY 🔹 Cloud Applications: $4.2B; +10% YoY 🔹 Software: $5.6B; -3% YoY 🔹 Hardware: $774M; +15% YoY 🔹 Services: $1.4B; +5% YoY Other Q1 Metrics: 🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $8.2B; +31% YoY 🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 42% 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $23.1B; +184% YoY 🔹 Free Cash Flow: -$5.4B 🔹 CapEx: $28.5B Key Updates: 🔹 AI Cloud Contracts: More than $30B booked in Q1, increasing RPO to $664B 🔹 ATM Equity Program: $20B of common stock sold before commissions Source: Trend Spider, Wall St Engine

And this was a calculated gamble. Storage facilities are just 67% full—13 percentage points below last year—as Europe bet on the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Qatari LNG supplies returning. Neither happened. Dutch gas futures are now approaching €80/MWh, while spot prices have surged 75% since June. Europe’s energy gamble is becoming America’s windfall. US LNG exporters can sell every cargo they are able to load. One region’s supply risk is another region’s pricing power. Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS

A recent research piece by Goldman highlighted that the market might be too cautiously positioned. Two examples: 1/ On the left: Nasdaq-100 futures shorts have risen 35% since mid-June. 2/ On the right: This quarter’s hedge fund de-grossing episode was particularly sharp. Per GS Prime Brokerage data, US Fundamental L/S gross/net leverage now stand at 207% / 49.8%, in the 20th / 6th percentiles vs. the past year. Source: GS

As highlighted by Goldman, S&P 500 earnings grew by approximately 30% year-on-year in Q2 2026, excluding “other income” linked to private investment stakes. Hyperscalers and the AI infrastructure companies benefiting from their capex boom delivered an impressive 54% increase in earnings, contributing roughly half of the index’s total EPS growth. But the earnings strength extended well beyond AI. Excluding the Energy sector—where profits were boosted by higher oil prices—the rest of the S&P 500 still recorded solid and accelerating EPS growth of 14% year-on-year. Source: GS

Global tanker freight rates are surging to record levels with little respite in sight, a sign of the growing strain in oil markets as traders, shipowners, producers and buyers grapple with a drawn-out conflict in the Persian Gulf and increasingly complex workarounds. Earnings for supertankers sailing on the benchmark Middle East-to-China route are at a record of nearly $800,000 a day. Meanwhile, for the US Gulf to Asia run, charterers have been offering very large crude carriers at a record lump-sum fee of $29.5 million — close to $15 per barrel without considering additional war risks or fees for unexpected delays. (Bloomberg) Source: Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 )