A massive global food supply crisis could start next year because of fertilizer shortages, per JPMorgan.
Unlike oil, there is no strategic reserve for fertilizer. Source: Bull Theory, JP Morgan
The three largest foreign holders of US Treasuries all reduced their exposure in June.
🇯🇵 Japan: sold $26B, cutting holdings from $1.143T to $1.117T. 🇨🇳 China: sold another $26B, bringing its Treasury holdings down to just $633B — the lowest level since September 2008. 🇬🇧 UK: holdings declined by $9B to $940B. But the bigger story may be the collapse in foreign demand. 📉 Total foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds and notes increased by just $6.8B in June, compared with $56.6B in May. At a time when Washington needs to finance enormous deficits, its biggest foreign creditors are becoming increasingly reluctant buyers. More supply. Less foreign demand. Higher yields? 👀 Source: Bull Theory
Bloodbath in Asian Markets
Over $650 BILLION has been wiped out from Asian stocks as semiconductor and tech stocks sell off across Asian markets. 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI -5.5%, wiping out ₩279.7T ($186B). 🇯🇵 Japan's NIKKEI -3.1%, wiping out ¥36.7T ($232B). 🇨🇳 China's SSE -2%, wiping out ¥1.29T ($180B). 🇹🇼 Taiwan's stock market -1.5%, wiping out NT$1.80T ($55B). Source: Bull Theory
Diesel is flashing RED.
The US diesel crack spread — the margin between crude oil and diesel — just hit a record $102/barrel, setting new highs in five of the last six sessions. Why it matters: ⛽ US diesel inventories are at their lowest seasonal level since 1996. 🏭 Global refinery output is down ~5 million barrels/day YoY amid disruptions linked to Iran and Ukraine. 🇷🇺 Russia has restricted diesel exports through January. 🚜 And Northern Hemisphere harvest season is starting — exactly when diesel demand from agriculture rises. Most investors watch crude oil. But diesel is arguably more important for the real economy. Trucks, tractors, ships and heavy machinery depend on it. One study estimates diesel prices explain 46% of trucking costs. Higher diesel → higher freight costs → higher food and goods prices. And with producer prices already rising faster than consumer prices, some of those costs could still be waiting to reach consumers. Oil may drive the headlines. Diesel could be the one driving inflation higher. Source: Hedgie
Hyperscalers are quietly becoming giants of the bond market.
Many investors might still underestimate the sheer scale of debt issuance coming from Big Tech. At the current pace, hyperscalers could become as significant in the investment-grade bond market as the largest global banks within just a few years. The AI infrastructure boom isn’t just reshaping technology. It’s reshaping credit markets too. Source: BofA, Tracy Alloway
Anthropic just passed OpenAI in quarterly revenue for the first time more than doubling to $11.6B while OpenAI grew 18% to $6.7B.
Anthropic also reached a small operating profit making the gap even more notable as the two leaders scale on very different trajectories. Source: Shay Boloor
Average token costs have collapsed from a high of $2.07/mil tokens on May 28 to $1.02/mil tokens.
Main drivers are price cuts to OpenAI's models and new open-source models from Kimi & DeepSeek (which tend to be several multiples cheaper than closed-source models). Source: Liz Thomas Bloomberg
Amazon $AMZN just announced plans to grow its Louisiana data center investment from $12B to $18 billion with a third data center campus.
Source: Evan
