Banks and insurers might be longs as structural beneficiaries in the AI era.
Back office tasks get automated and margins improve. Software has a large opportunity to improve efficiency as well. Source: Greg @GS_CapSF
AI disrupting toilets next
Source: Bloomberg
THE WORLD RUNS THROUGH 8 STRAITS
Here are the key chokepoints: • Malacca ~25% of global traded goods • Hormuz ~25% of global oil, ~⅓ of LNG • Singapore ~50% of global seaborne trade • Gibraltar Atlantic ↔ Mediterranean • Bosphorus Black Sea outlet • Magellan Atlantic ↔ Pacific backup • Bering Arctic gateway • Bass Australian passage These are pressure points. Close Hormuz... Oil spikes. Disrupt Malacca... Asia freezes. Block Bosphorus... Black Sea trade halts. Geopolitics isn’t abstract. It’s maritime geometry. Source: Jack Prandelli @jackprandelli on X
hey, capex is good. It will pay off” consider the historical record
Source: Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA
AI Risk Is Dominating Conference Calls as Investors Dump Stocks
Source: Bloomberg
A Stock Market Doom Loop Is Hitting Everything That Touche AI
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin $BTC has repeatedly shown an uncanny ability to move in the opposite direction of what the prevailing narrative would suggest.
Source: Beth Kindig @Beth_Kindig
~$9.6 trillion of U.S. marketable government debt will mature over the next 12 months, the most ever.
That’s roughly 1/3 of ALL outstanding public debt that needs to be refinanced. Most of it was originally issued when rates were near zero. Now it refinances at 4–5%. The math: even a 2% average rate increase on $9.6T = ~$192B in added annual interest costs alone. For context, net interest on U.S. debt is already on pace to exceed $1 trillion/year in 2026, more than the defense budget. The largest refinancing wall in history is here. Source: @NoLimitGains on X
