Trump just posted that France refused to let U.S. planes loaded with military supplies for Israel fly over French territory.
He said hashtag#France has been "VERY UNHELPFUL" with the Iran war. "The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!!" NATO is having a moment... Source: Mario Nawfal Truth Social
Saudi oil export through Yanbu West Terminal are skyrocketing. The next target for Iran?
The Houthis’ involvement adds a second maritime pressure point in the Red Sea, with the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu export hub and disrupt traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb. This puts ~5 mbd of Saudi bypass capacity at risk, potentially adding around $20/bbl to oil prices, writes JPM's Kaneva. Workarounds exist, but longer routes could extend Asia shipping times by up to 40 days and require 130+ additional tanker voyages. Source. JP Morgan, RBC, TME
European bond markets are having one of their worst months in a decade.
Italy's 10-yr yield hit 4.14% - highest since mid-2024. France's touched 3.9% - highest since 2009. Spain's at 3.7% - highest since 2023. The last time Eurozone borrowing costs moved this fast was in the 2022 energy crisis. The difference is that one cost €651 billion to contain. Source: FT, Nic @nicrypto
Fixed Income: Are markets starting to price in “growth fear” (instead of inflation fear”) ?
•A notable bid to bonds on Friday (decoupling from the correlation-one with oil and stocks) suggests inflation fears are ebbing, and attention is shifting to growth concerns. Monday market action gives the same message… •5Y5Y inflation swaps signal the ongoing decline in medium-term inflation... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Midterm years have been notoriously weak for the stock market. But year three of the Presidential cycle has been extremely strong…
Source: Bespoke
BREAKING: DESALINATION PLANT IN KUWAIT STRUCK BY IRAN INDIAN WORKER KILLED ‘SEVERE DAMAGE’ TO ‘SERVICE BUILDING’
Iran allegedly struck a water desalination facility in Kuwait, causing a death and damage. Because Gulf countries rely heavily on desalination (especially Kuwait, where it provides about 90% of drinking water), the attack is framed as targeting a critical and vulnerable resource. This shifts the conflict from oil/energy infrastructure to water infrastructure—something even more essential and harder to replace or buffer. Desalination is highly concentrated in a small number of plants, making it fragile. This represents a dangerous move into a “water war,” where disruptions could have severe humanitarian consequences.
Institutional investors are dumping US equities at a massive pace:
Investors sold -$9.3 billion in US equities last week, bringing the 6-week total to -$13.5 billion. This comes as sales of single stocks surged to -$8.3 billion, the 4th-largest since the Great Financial Crisis. Institutional investors led with -$11 billion in outflows. Meanwhile, retail investors remained sellers for a 2nd consecutive week. Hedge funds returned to buying at +$1.8 billion, but they have sold -$4.9 billion over the last 4 weeks. Professional investors are running to the exit. Source: Global Markets Investor
Iran has drafted legislation to create the "Hormuz Law" which is expected create a formal toll system for the Strait of Hormuz.
Preliminary details include: 1. Hormuz Law to introduce fees on navigation and pollution in the Strait of Hormuz 2. Draft legislation also includes creation of a "regional fund“ 3. The move is seen as an attempt to formalize long-term tolls on global shipping routes 4. The US has called these tolls on the Strait of Hormuz both "illegal" and "unacceptable" The Strait of Hormuz situation is becoming even more complicated. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
