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Gold is the same ounce
The dollar is not the same dollar. Most people still don’t get it. Source: @fthegurus
Is Athens Greece the new place to be ?
According to FT, Millennium Management, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, is planning to open an office in Athens, according to people familiar with the situation, as the Greek government launches a charm offensive to woo global investors. Rahul Chopra, senior portfolio manager at Millennium, is expecting to move to Athens from London, the people said. Millennium and the Greek finance ministry declined to comment. The move comes in the wake of a new tax scheme unveiled by the Greek government this summer that specifically targeted private equity and hedge fund executives. Billionaire hedge fund manager Chris Rokos, founder of Rokos Capital Management, is moving his tax residency from the UK to Greece. Greece already had a favourable tax rate for foreign individuals which allows them to keep foreign income assets out of the Greek tax net in exchange for a €100,000 annual fee. Under the new regime, those who qualify and relocate to Greece pay a 5 per cent tax on bonuses and carried interest — investment managers’ share of profits from successful deals — compared with the standard 15 per cent rate. But they also need to have a real presence in the country by spending €3mn a year on running expenses. Source: FT
Profit margins: Tech is doing the heavy lifting
Source: Topdown charts
China’s calm economic surface is beginning to crack.
Beijing is injecting ¥360 billion ($56 billion) into eight major banks and insurers—its largest financial-sector recapitalization in nearly two decades. This follows another ¥500 billion injected since early 2025. Why now? - New bank lending contracted by a record ¥340 billion in July - China’s credit impulse has fallen to its lowest level since the Lehman crisis - Banking margins are at historic lows - Property losses and local-government debt remain major risks - The Big Four banks may face a ¥3.7 trillion capital shortfall under TLAC requirements Officially, this is a pre-planned effort to reinforce balance sheets and sustain lending—not an emergency rescue. But the message is difficult to ignore: China’s banks need more firepower because credit creation, loan demand and economic momentum are weakening sharply. The recapitalization strengthens the plumbing. Whether it revives growth is another question. Source: zerohedge
AI token demand could reach 4,000 quadrillion tokens annually by 2030.
That is Evercore’s base case—more than 20× today’s consumption. Goldman Sachs projects a similar 24× increase. The biggest driver? Agentic AI. AI agents could become the largest source of token demand by 2030. They operate continuously—and a single agentic task can consume 10–100× more tokens than a chatbot response. But the forecast excludes one potentially enormous category: physical AI—robots, autonomous machines and intelligent industrial systems. Every token ultimately requires physical infrastructure: 🔹 GPUs 🔹 Memory 🔹 Networking 🔹 Electricity 🔹 Data centres That infrastructure largely does not exist yet. AI-related stocks will experience corrections. But forecasts for underlying demand continue to be revised higher—not lower. The AI infrastructure cycle may have much further to run than markets currently assume. Source: Kyle Reidhead | Milk Road
Market Expectations for Fed Funds Rate
The market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed hike at the September 16 meeting, with the odds going up to 71% by the October meeting and 86% by year-end. Source: Charlie Bilello
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