Syz the moment

Source: Brew markets

Facilities are now only 52% full – the lowest level for this time of year since at least 2020, and even lower than in 2022, the year Russia launched its war against Ukraine. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

Here is the breakdown of what this means for the US, the economy, and the defense industry: 1. The "Tariff-Fueled" Growth 💰 The President is pivotting away from traditional debt-funding. The plan? Use tariff revenue to bridge the gap from $901B to $1.5T. While skeptics point to CBO deficit warnings, the administration is betting big on trade levies to fund national security and even pay a "dividend" to the middle class. 2. A New Era for Defense Contractors 🛠️ The days of "business as usual" for the Big Defense are over. The President is demanding: - No more share buybacks or dividends if production speeds don't meet his standards. - Massive upfront investment in plants and equipment. - Executive pay tied to production, not short-term financial metrics. The message to giants like Raytheon is clear: Innovate or be sidelined. 3. "The Department of War" Mindset 🌎 With recent operations in the Atlantic and Venezuela—and Greenland back on the table—the military is being positioned as the primary tool for foreign policy. We are moving from a posture of deterrence to one of active assertion. The Bottom Line: We are witnessing a radical decoupling of defense spending from traditional fiscal constraints, fueled by a "Production First" mandate for the private sector. Is this the necessary evolution for "dangerous times," or a fiscal risk too far? Source: FT

Investors are scrambling to figure out the "Day After" playbook. If the Court overturns them, we aren’t just looking at a policy shift—we’re looking at a complete market regime change. Here’s the bull vs. bear breakdown: ✅ The "Soft Landing" Bull Case Overturning tariffs = Instant Disinflation. Core goods inflation drops. Consumer purchasing power gets a massive boost. Short-term relief for the American wallet. ❌ The "Fiscal Nightmare" Bear Case It’s not all sunshine and roses. Fiscal Sustainability: Our deficit takes a direct hit (check the chart below 📉). Labor Heat: A boost in spending could supercharge labor demand, sparking structural inflation down the road. The "Wild Card" Factor 🃏 Don't expect the Administration to sit idly by. If the Court says "No," the White House will likely pivot to a raft of new legal avenues to keep protectionist measures alive. The $10 Trillion Question: How does the Fed react? If the Fed sees tariff removal as a green light for more rate cuts, we are looking at a "Risk On" environment. The Play: Long duration might be the winner. 📈 The Risk: If the term premium spikes because of fiscal concerns, that "Long" call could turn "Short" faster than you can hit 'sell.' Source: BCA, Jonathan LaBerge

We talk about chips, we talk about data, but we’re forgetting the "Red Metal" that powers it all. S&P Global just released a report that should be a wake-up call for every tech leader and policymaker: The world is facing a 10 million tonne copper deficit by 2040. That isn't just a "shortage"—it’s a systemic risk to the global economy. Why the sudden surge? 📈 We are witnessing a "Perfect Storm" of demand: The AI Revolution: Data centers aren't just about code; they are massive physical infrastructures. Copper demand for AI and robotics is set to more than double by 2040. The Energy Transition: You can't have an EV or a green grid without copper. It is the "Great Enabler" of electrification. Geopolitical Stakes: Access to copper is now a national security issue. If you don't have the metal, you can't build the future. The Supply Reality Check 🛠️ The numbers are sobering: Demand is jumping from 28mn tonnes to 42mn tonnes. Mine production is expected to peak in 2030 and then decline. New mines take years (sometimes decades) to bring online. The "Bottleneck" Warning ⚠️ As Daniel Yergin, Vice-chair of S&P Global, puts it: “At stake is whether copper remains an enabler of progress or becomes a bottleneck to growth and innovation.” With prices already surging from $8,000 to over $13,000 per tonne, the cost of building the future just got a lot more expensive. The big question for the industry: Will we see a massive pivot to copper recycling and new mining tech, or will the "Green Transition" and "AI Boom" stall out due to a lack of raw materials? Source: FT

Next week's commodity index rebalancing could force massive selling of silver futures, pushing prices lower regardless of fundamentals. Silver faces the largest selling pressure among major commodities, with rebalancing demand at -25% of open interest. Index funds will be forced to dump silver futures just to rebalance. Why? Silver's recent surge was driven by speculation, not fundamentals, fueled by ETFs, retail traders, and thin liquidity. Source: DB, Global Markets Investor

Mag7 stocks have significantly lagged the rest of the market in 2026 so far... The S&P 493 is up 2.5% YTD, Mag7 -0.6%... Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg

We are witnessing the rollout of a global energy stranglehold. If you think the recent moves in South America are local politics, you’re missing the forest for the trees. This is a masterclass in Geopolitical Chess, and the target is much bigger. Here is why Venezuela is the "Patient Zero" for a new era of American dominance: 🔴 1. Cutting China’s Lifelines By taking control of Venezuela’s oil and aligning Nigeria under Western oversight, Washington is effectively pulling the plug on China’s access to cheap, reliable energy. Control the supply + control the transit = control the rival. 🚢 2. The Chokepoint Strategy Look at the map. From the Bab al-Mandab (Somaliland/Yemen) to the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. is positioning itself to insulate its own economy while leaving China’s economy vulnerable to any disruption. 🛡️ 3. Neutralizing the Iran Factor Securing the world’s largest oil reserves in Venezuela provides a massive "buffer." If the Persian Gulf goes dark in a conflict with Iran, the U.S. won't flinch. Venezuela becomes the ultimate insurance policy, making military escalation in the Middle East "affordable." 💵 4. Defending the Petrodollar This is about ensuring the U.S. Dollar remains the undisputed king of energy markets. By restructuring sovereign states to align with U.S. interests, Washington is reinforcing the financial plumbing of the global economy. The Bottom Line: Venezuela is a strategic precedent. If this succeeds, it’s a blueprint for reasserting dominance over trade routes and energy flows for the next 50 years. But there’s a massive "IF." If the U.S. gets bogged down in a prolonged crisis in Caracas, it drains the very capital needed to project power in the Middle East and Asia. Is this a brilliant strategic realignment, or a high-stakes gamble that could overextend American power?