Fed Cut Probability Update - Jim Bianco (Bianco Research)
- May 1 FOMC meeting (green) less than 50% (meaning no move) - June 12 FOMC meeting (blue) less than 50% (meaning no move) - July 31 FOMC meeting (red) less than 50% (meaning no move) - September 18 FOMC meeting (orange) less than 60% (since it is 5 months away, effectively a coin-toss) After this, the next FOMC meeting is Thursday, November 7, two days after the election.
Bonds rally as the Fed’s preferred inflation metric cam out not as bad as feared.
PCE deflator rose to 2.7% in March from 2.5% in Feb vs 2.6% expected. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of underlying price pressures, remained at 2.8%, compared with an anticipated fall to 2.7%. First full rate cut is now priced for November. Note that we now have CPI, PPI and PCE inflation RISING for 2 straight months. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
China is buying/importing gold like there is no tomorrow
Source: Willem Middelkoop
what a journey...
Source chart: Bloomberg
Copper jumps to highest price since April 2022 👀
Source: Barchart
In case you missed it... U.S. 10-year government bonds yield 4.70%, about two percent more than Vietnam's 2.92%.
Source: Jeff Weniger
While $IBIT's daily inflow streak is over at 71 days, it is not done setting records.
Here's a look at ETFs all time by assets after first 72 days on market. Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
BlackRock's Bitcoin $BTC ETF just saw its 71-day inflow streak come to an end.
Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
