A number of Central Banks have begun to add gold to their reserves since Russia invaded Ukraine.
Chart from Alpine Macro. According to the IMF there is about $12 trillion of currency reserves held globally. That is nearly the market value of the gold stock, but according to Alpine Macro only about $3 trillion of gold is potentially available for central banks to purchase. While other factors need to be taken into account, Central banks buying is likely creating a supply/demand imbalance. Source: Crit Thomas, Alpine Macro
The Dow-to-Gold ratio has now backtested for the second time, after breaking down below its 25-year triangle.
And the chart is now very close to making an expected lower low, which will confirm the historical trend change. Is gold now set to outperform the general stock market? Source: Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles
Yes, this week was painful for stocks.
But putting things into perspective, equities have been more resilient to higher rates recently versus previous periods of rising rates. Source: Edward Jones
Just a friendly reminder that experts are not always right
Source image: Michel A.Arouet
Have a look at the yearly Gold Forecast based on Bloomberg:
Highest forecast for 2024: 2,260, Median: 2,050 Highest forecast for 2025: 2,220, Median: 2,050 Highest forecast for 2026: 2,280, Median: 1,887 Highest forecast for 2027: 2,350, Median: 1,807 Consensus doesn't look optimistic at all on gold. We are far from bubble territory. Is the bull market just starting? Source: Ronnie Stoeferle
Just In: Gold rising to new all-time highs above $2,400 per ounce
for the first time in history.
The S&P 500's performance has been truly outstanding this year.
The index is up 9% year to date which is more than DOUBLE the average YTD return in an election year. In the past, the median return during a US presidential election year was about 11%. There are still several months until the presidential election but the index is on track to significantly exceed its historical performance. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
What is it this time?
Source: www.zerohedge.com
