Some much needed liquidity is coming...
The TGA (Treasury General Account) is finally getting depleted Here comes the flood: Treasury injects avalanche of cash into the economy ($170BN in 3 days, the most since covid) as debt ceiling extraordinary measures are exhausted. Could this prop up risk? What is the Treasury General Account and why it matters? The TGA is used by the Treasury to hold cash to fund government operations. When the TGA balance is high, it means the Treasury is holding more cash than it is spending. This cash accumulation can occur due to higher-than-expected tax receipts or issuance of Treasury securities. Conversely, when the Treasury spends this cash, it injects liquidity into the financial system. Therefore, the TGA balance is a significant determinant of liquidity in global financial markets. Source: zerohedge
The US government RECESSION has begun:
Government + quasi-government education & health job addition accounts for ~70% of all payroll creation, down from ~85% in Feb 2024. It is expected this will fall even further in the coming months, meaning non-farm payrolls will weaken. Source: BofA
BREAKING - US INFLATION DATA RELEASED - Core PCE YoY 2.6% - lowest since March 2021
BULLISH! YoY Growth: PCE (Jan), 2.5% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.6%) Core PCE, 2.6% Vs. 2.6% Est. (prev. 2.8%) MoM Growth: PCE (Jan), 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) Core PCE, 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.2%) Source: @CyclesWithBach, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Bitcoin ETFs are hit by a record $1 billion outflow in one day
Investors yanked more than $1 billion from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds Tuesday, marking the biggest one-day outflow since the cohort’s debut last January. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (ticker FBTC) posted the steepest outflows among these funds, followed by the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), according to data compiled by Bloomberg. As a group, the Bitcoin funds shed roughly $2.1 billion over six consecutive days — the longest stretch of outflows since last June. source : yahoo!finance, bloomberg
Where did all the UK IPOs go?
The London Stock Exchange had fewer new IPO listings last year than during the global financial crisis. The UK saw the lowest number of IPOs in decades, with a mere 17 listings added — down 96% from its 2005 peak. source : snacksuk, bloomberg
NVIDIA $NVDA
Buys 88.2% 67 Holds 11.8% 9 Sells 0.00% 0 Street's 12M Tgt Px: $175.93 Last Price: $120.15 Source: Lawrence Mc Donald, Bloomberg
US equities now have the highest CAPE ratio globally.
More importantly: The tech sector alone is at a staggering ~60x CAPE. Source: Tavi Costa, Bloomberg
U.S. pending home sales have fallen to a new all-time low
Worse than Covid. Worse than 2008. Source: Bloomberg
