It’s not a disconnect between macro view and S&P 500, it’s simply Mag7 euphoria driving the divergence
S&P 493 is valued more in line with macro expectations. Source: BofA, Michel A.Arouet
10-Year Bond Yields
USA 5.00% Greece 4.36% Source: Bloomberg, Lawrence McDonald
Here's a chart of gold in yen
Japan has been ahead of the curve when it comes to FIAT currency debasement and the way its currency is trading against gold is rather frightening with another huge ~10% new ATH move this month. Will other FIAT currencies follow the yen path? Source: Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles
Tweet by Lyn Alden -> "Egypt is currently dealing with a sovereign debt crisis. Multiple ratings downgrades, currency devaluation, working with the IMF, etc.
So, people buy stocks. The stocks are not doing well in dollar terms, but they're doing fine nominally.
Quantitative tightening (QT) may have taken a backseat in recent months, but is still very much in vogue
Source: BofA, TME
Bitcoin hit $34k on short squeeze
BTC
Shares of US firms that miss profit estimates are falling by the most in four years:
Bloomberg Intelligence
The Kobeissi Letter >>> In fiscal year 2023, the US ran a deficit of $1.7 trillion
If you add back the student loan forgiveness program adjustment, the deficit was actually $2 trillion. To put this in perspective, the annual US deficit is roughly equal to total individual income tax collected. It also means that the 2023 deficit is nearly 5 TIMES as large as corporate income taxes. The 2023 deficit as reported is ~25% larger than total Social Security outlays. Net interest was $659 billion and should soon pass the national defense budget. What's the long-term plan here?
