The odds of the US economy entering a recession in 2025 have fallen to a fresh low of just 19%.
Since Election Day, the odds of the US economy entering a recession are down 35 percentage points, per @Kalshi .This comes after the preliminary reading of Q4 2024 GPD showed the US economy grew by 2.3%. Even as interest rates remain elevated and inflation rebounds, the US economy is growing. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
GAME CHANGER ? APPLE QUIETLY ADDS STARLINK TO IPHONES IN iOS 18.3
Apple just opened iPhone doors to Starlink's satellite network, giving users an alternative to their Globalstar service for off-grid communication. The key difference? No more pointing your phone at the sky - Starlink works right from your pocket. T-Mobile to beta testers: "You can now stay connected with texting via satellite from virtually anywhere" While it's text-only for now, SpaceX and T-Mobile plan to add voice calls and data in the future. The race for space-based cellular just got interesting. Source: Bloomberg thru Mario Nawfal on X
Six things mentally strong people do
Source: Yasin Arafeh
Donald Trump was once asked on 'The Apprentice': "What's the most important lesson in business?"
Here's what he answered: SPEED. When Trump saw big opportunities, he acted fast: • Trump Tower: Seized prime Fifth Avenue location • Plaza Hotel: Record-breaking purchase • Mar-a-Lago: Turned $10M investment into $22.7M annual revenue. But there's a crucial lesson here: Success isn't just about the size of your moves. It's about the speed at which you make them. Trump's philosophy works because it combines two critical elements: 1. Spotting massive opportunities 2. Acting before others can Source: Hosun @hosun_chung on X
Europe doesn't have much AI companies but they aim to lead on AI regulations...
Source: European Commission
🚨What is happening with the eurozone economy?
Germany and France GDP fell 0.2% and 0.1% in Q4 2024. Italy's GDP was flat for the 2nd consecutive quarter. In effect, Euro-area economy did not grow in Q4 2024. Germany has contracted for 2 consecutive years in 2023 and 2024... Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets
🚨 US MACRO DATA & NFP RELEASED!
SOME SIGNS OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN BUT JOB MARKET AND CONSUMERS STAY STRONG 🚀 🔴 US GDP (Q4), 2.3% Vs. 2.6% Est (prev. 3.1%) Q4 GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 2.3% (lowest in 3 quarters), powered by a 4.3% surge in personal spending. Here are the details: - Personal consumption: 4.2% vs. 3.2% est. - Non-residential fixed investment: -2.2% (Q3: +4%) - Housing investment: +5.3% (Q3: -4.3%) - Exports: -0.8% (Q3: +9.6%) - Imports: -0.8% (Q3: +10.7%) 👉 Bottom-line: Consumption strong, but trade and business investment drag. 🔴PCE 4.2%, Exp. 3.2% (prev. 3.7%) Core PCE 2.5%, Exp. 2.5% (prev. 2.2%) 🔴US Jobless Claims, 207K Vs. 225K Est. (prev. 223K) 👉 Job market remains resilient ➡️ Overall, this still sounds like goldilocks. Growth is slowing down but remains resilient overall and the consumer is in good shape. Inflation risk remains but is not accelerating meaningfully with Core PCE in line with expectations.
BOC (Bank of Canada) ANNOUNCES AN END OF QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING
AND WILL GRADUALLY RESTART ASSET PURCHASES IN EARLY MARCH. Who will be next?
