Wall Street biggest bear (BofA's Harnett) turns bullish as investors' sentiment turns extremely bearish (which is bullish from a contrarian perspective)
Indeed, with the S&P down in five of the past seven weeks, BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator just printed at 1.9 (extreme bearish), which according to Hartnett means that a contrarian buy signal for risk assets has been triggered.
Startups are increasingly shutting down
Rising rates, lower liquidity and reduced risk appetite are hurting funding. Difficult business conditions are eroding viability further. Source: Markets & Mayhem
Argentina's currency has lost 96% of its value vs the USD in the past decade
In that period, the central bank has increased the monetary base by 2,046% to finance government political spending... Source: Bloomberg
In case you missed it...
Citigroup $C closed at its lowest price in more than 3.5 years Source: Barchart
The correlation was weaker in the 1980s/1990s, but starting after 2000, gold has historically done quite well whenever the Fed pauses or cuts
Source: Lyn Alden
Top 6 banking ratios every investor should know
Trade Brains
Where do we stand in terms of percentile each year for the below aggregates in the US:
- US Government Debt to GDP = 98th percentile - SP500 Cyclically-adjusted-PE ratio = 99th percentile - US Consumer Price Index YoY change = 88th percentile Sounds like an interesting trifecta... Source: Crescat Capital
Disinflationary forces are intensifying in Germany, at least for now
German PPI deflation deepened with PPI down 14.7% YoY, the most since the start of the statistic in 1949. Even compared to the previous month, producer prices fell by 0.2%. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
