In Germany, a ceasefire in Ukraine would add just 0.1ppts to Germany’s economic growth
—only half the boost expected in France, Italy, or Spain, according to Goldman Sachs. The reason? Germany would face a bigger economic drag from the return of Ukrainian refugees. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs
WOW. Washington DC's economy looks like 2008:
Unemployment filings in Washington DC just SURGED +36% in one week to 3 TIMES the 2024 average. Over the last 6 weeks, unemployment filings are up +55%, now ABOVE 2008 levels. Since January 20th, over 4,000 federal employees have filed first time unemployment claims in Washington DC. Furthermore, the year-to-date total has hit nearly 7,000. That's a whopping +55% increase over the previous 6 week period. Last week alone, claims surged +36%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
It's been awhile since the US S&P500 $SPY has been in the bottom half of country ETF performance.
That's where it is YTD though. Europe has been flying in 2025. Source: Bespoke
Gold consecutive weekly gains
Source: Win Smart
Gold has officially hit the highest level EVER on an inflation-adjusted basis
This is why they call Gold an inflation hedge. Source: Bravos Research
Discipline
Source: Seek Wiser
Trump will retaliate to VAT. This is potentially catastrophic for EU exporters
*TRUMP: VAT TAX WILL BE VIEWED AS A TARIFF *TRUMP: WILL CONSIDER COUNTRIES THAT USE VAT *TRUMP: PROVISIONS WILL BE MADE FOR NON-MONETARY TARIFFS The VAT response is notable because the tariff differential for the EU, for example, with and without VAT is massive and rises from just 2% (without VAT) to a whopping 18% with! And judging by Trump's comments, which said that the EU is "absolutely brutal" on trade, the inclusion of VAT is precisely meant to punish Europe. The chart below shows the amount that each country's VAT exceeds the US sales tax. And so, if indeed Trump imposes a reciprocal tariff policy also accounted for foreign VATs, it could add another 10% to the average US effective tariff rate. That could be catastrophic to exporters, and Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos agrees writing that if reciprocal tariffs are applied on a VAT basis, "European countries would be much higher on the list of impacted countries given high consumption taxes." Like Goldman, the DB strategist notes that the overall US tariff rate would increase by more than 10% Source: zerohedge
EGGS-ORBITANT! PRICES CRACK NEW RECORDS AS BIRD FLU STRIKES
A dozen eggs now costs $4.95 - up a shell-shocking 238% since 2021. U.S. farms forced to eliminate 34M hens in recent months as bird flu decimates supply chains. USDA Report: "The timing and scope of HPAI outbreaks has created an imbalance in the nation's supply of table shell eggs" While Americans aren't exactly walking on eggshells about cheese (1%) and bananas (4%), other staples like coffee (53%) and beef (40%) continue to burn holes in wallets. Source: Statista
