What a chart... aluminum...
While most of the critical minerals talk in the US is about rare earths, something far more important is happening: US aluminum all-in costs have surged to a record as traders/smelters demand huge physical premia on top of LME prices due to Trump’s tariffs. Source: Javier Blas on X , Bloomberg
Bitcoin sentiment is as bad as it was at the 2022 low.
Source: Glassnode, Joe Consorti
Only 26% of S&P 500 stocks have outperformed the $SPX over the last 3 months, one of the worst market breadth readings since 2020
Source: Goldman
Warren Buffett now owns a staggering 5.6% of the entire U.S. Treasury Bill Market 🚨🚨🚨
Source: Barchart
🚀 Morgan Stanley: “The AI Memory Super Cycle Has Arrived — and It’s Unlike Anything We’ve Seen Before.”
Morgan Stanley says the new AI-driven memory super cycle will far surpass any past cycle — in scale, speed, and earnings power. 💡 Here’s what’s different this time: Led by AI data centers and cloud giants, not consumer devices. Price sensitivity is gone. Memory is now a strategic must-have, not a cost item. HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) demand is exploding, squeezing traditional DRAM supply. 📈 The numbers are jaw-dropping: Q4 server DRAM contract prices up ~70% (vs. 30% expected). DDR5 spot prices +336% since September. NAND up 20–30% — and still rising amid severe shortages. Enterprise SSD demand expected to surge 50%+ YoY by 2026. 🏭 Suppliers in control: SK hynix and Samsung now hold unprecedented pricing power. Morgan Stanley remains Overweight on both, expecting record profits and new share price highs. 🔥 The key insight: “This isn’t a typical memory cycle. It’s a structural shift — driven by AI inference workloads and hyperscaler demand. Earnings, not valuations, will define the peak.” 💰 Even after massive price hikes, memory is still below its last cycle peak ($1/Gb vs. $1.25 in 2018). Morgan Stanley sees further upside as AI capex accelerates. 📊 Bottom line: This AI memory super cycle is longer, stronger, and more profitable than any before. Morgan Stanley expects 2026–27 earnings 30–50% above market consensus for SK hynix and Samsung. “We’re in uncharted territory — this is not just a cycle. It’s a paradigm shift.”
Buffett's few final thoughts in his final letter-
Source: Jeff Park @dgt10011
This is Historic: Retail investors own the risk.
Households are holding a record 52% in equities, up from 25% after 2008. That’s above every cycle before it. Source: Goldman Sachs, zerohedge
Buybacks are back...
"Goldman estimates over $6B worth of stock buyback vwap demand for each November trading day" Source: zerohedge
