A trade-off between more uncertainty in the near term and a lighter tariff regime in the medium to long term
LONG-TERM: Morgan Stanley sees an opportunity for the President to alleviate some components of the existing tariff regime over time IN THE NEARER TERM: uncertainty will likely prevail in terms of which authorities will replace the existing tariffs, which sectors/countries will face more legally durable tariffs (Sec. 232/301 after months of investigation), and most importantly, what happens to the bilateral framework deals that are currently in place. That means the broader macro impact could be modest in the context of these two competing factors. Source: zerohedge
Replacing the IEEPA Tariffs With a 15% Tariff Under Section 122 for Now Would Reduce the Increase in the Effective Tariff Rate Since the Start of 2025 from Just Over 10pp to 9pp
Goldman Sachs estimates that the changes will reduce the increase in the effective tariff rate since the start of 2025 from just over 10% to about 9% once the Sec. 122 tariffs are implemented. Source: Zerohedge
tariffs collected by Trump so far
Source: Bloomberg
2026 has so far seen the second strongest relative performance for equal weight versus cap weight since 1990
Source: Bespoke
how corporates are shifting their uses of cash.
The biggest standout here is that funds are not being returned to shareholders as before, i.e., dividends and buybacks have certainly taken a hit. Source: Goldman Sachs, Ayesha Tariq, CFA @AyeshaTariq
Without comments
Source: Trend Spider
Us Tariffs range from 8.3% to 15.3%
The headline: The trade-weighted average US tariff rate is now 13.2% under Section 122 at 15%. That's down from 15.3% before the ruling, but well above the 8.3% that would have applied with no replacement. Source: Global Trade Alert
Amazon Is Hiring Robots While Cutting Human Jobs
Source: Visual Capitalist
