The most profitable period in the modern history of the mining industry???
Source: Tavi Costa
Wall Street has predicted inflation would return to 2% for 64 straight months. It has been wrong every time.
Yesterday, New York Fed President John Williams said he expects inflation to ease in the second half of this year and decline further next year. That is also the consensus view on Wall Street. The chart tells a different story. For the past 64 months, Bloomberg's survey of around 70 economists has consistently projected core PCE inflation would return to roughly 2% within the next six quarters. It never happened. Before the pandemic, forecasts generally expected inflation to rise back toward target. Since COVID, the opposite has been true: economists have repeatedly predicted inflation would fall to 2%, yet core PCE has remained persistently above target and has even trended higher over the past 18 months. The key question is whether this time is genuinely different. If the same forecast has missed reality for more than five years, investors should ask what has fundamentally changed that would finally make it accurate. Source: Jim Bianco
S&P 500 hit $70 TRILLION in total market cap for the first time in history.
500 companies are now worth more than double the entire US economy. Source: Bull Theory
US macro numbers yesterday:
- the trade deficit is narrowing - exports are holding firm - labor demand remains healthy with limited layoffs - factory and capital spending are picking up. Together, these signals suggest an economy that continues to support growth, investment, and employment. Source: Daniel Lacalle, Bloomberg
$AMD crashed 12% after hours despite beating on every headline number.
- Revenue: $11.54B vs $11.28B expected - Adjusted EPS: $1.66 vs $1.62 expected - Data center revenue: $6.72B, up 107% year over year - Q3 guidance: $12.7B to $13.3B vs $12.5B expected First, capex came in at $808 million against a $298 million estimate, nearly three times what analysts modelled. The market is no longer rewarding AI spending. It wants to see the revenue. Second, valuation. The market is asking whether today's price already reflects years of exceptional growth. Here's an interesting case made by Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan on X ➡️ Assume AMD can sustain 40% annual revenue growth through 2030. That would imply roughly $200 billion in revenue. With a 40% net margin, net income would reach around $80 billion. Applying a 20x earnings multiple results in a company worth approximately $1.6 trillion. Discounted back to today at a 10% annual rate, that equates to a present value of roughly $990 billion. With AMD already valued at around $845 billion, investors see relatively little room for execution mistakes or weaker-than-expected growth. Third, another concern is that AMD's rapid expansion is closely tied to the current AI infrastructure spending boom. As customers increasingly diversify beyond NVIDIA, AMD has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries. However, many investors expect AI capex growth to moderate after 2027, raising questions about how long this tailwind can last. In short, AMD's outlook remains compelling, but its valuation leaves little margin for disappointment. Source: Bull Theory, Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan on X
Big oil is profiting big
Chevron, $CVX, had its best quarter ever. Exxon, $XOM, its best since 2022. Shell, $SHEL, second-highest on record. Source: Hedgeye @Hedgeye Bloomberg
The Stock Market is approaching a major top and a possible 1987-like crash, warns Michael Burry, the man who has predicted 60 of the last 2 market crashes
Source: Barchart
The Nasdaq 100 has surged +9.3% in just 4 sessions since last Thursday.
The rally already ranks among Tech’s sharpest 4d rebounds around major market shocks of the past decades; from the GFC and Covid to the 2022 hiking cycle and Liberation Day. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman, Bloomberg
